3rd world war should that happen.
I guess they may want to keep it a economic war for now.
ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
- Start date
- Status
3rd world war should that happen.
I guess they may want to keep it a economic war for now.
A short explanation why I think there is a very serious consequence to further trashing USD.
1st, something that puzzle me most is that bring USD to junk level helps no one as it is no longer 1930s.
Exporters in US do benefit from a lower USD but that does not translate to employement because exporters nowadays by definition do not hire that many people from within US. i.e. tech company have workers worldwide, etc.
Importers by definition MUST hire local people as they are the retailers, distributors, etc. service oriented industry to serve. And trashing USD simply kill them at the spot.
Yes ECO 101 may say that lower currency rate can do blah blah blah, but in reality those things are no longer true due to globalization. The only real consequence is that countries holding USD based assets, including the 30-yrs, are now unhappy for the least. These are not the people the US government can mess with.
Pushing USD to 1.5 and beyond once more, will likely trigger political reaction all over the world.
Seriously, not sure how to trade that.
1st, something that puzzle me most is that bring USD to junk level helps no one as it is no longer 1930s.
Exporters in US do benefit from a lower USD but that does not translate to employement because exporters nowadays by definition do not hire that many people from within US. i.e. tech company have workers worldwide, etc.
Importers by definition MUST hire local people as they are the retailers, distributors, etc. service oriented industry to serve. And trashing USD simply kill them at the spot.
Yes ECO 101 may say that lower currency rate can do blah blah blah, but in reality those things are no longer true due to globalization. The only real consequence is that countries holding USD based assets, including the 30-yrs, are now unhappy for the least. These are not the people the US government can mess with.
Pushing USD to 1.5 and beyond once more, will likely trigger political reaction all over the world.
Seriously, not sure how to trade that.
Quote from JSSPMK:
It's only 170 pips above
Last time the move was stopped by multiple central governments.
That's a warning to US to stop their monkey business. It's like, we know what you are doing and stop it now.
2nd try ....
Yes, we are talking about the same thing.
I know.
That's why a 2nd try is needed to see how serious these governments are with their 1st warnings.
So technically, if EURUSD stop its run here, or spike thru the year high and snap back down, we can expect a run towards 1.40 or below quickly.
As a trader, this is my watch and react zone. Not going to be a hero here to jump in with any position. =)
Quote from saliva:
Broke out from what?
By 2 points, I meant a rangebound move between 66 and 64 (eg. 66 - 2). Yes, it did break above 66 by 2 ticks. We'll call that an unintended head fake.
(Still, they failed to hit my stop at 66.75, which now sits at 68.25.)
Not to comment on your trade because I do not pick tops. =)
You have balls.
So, here is some info about today that may help.
1. should the mkt gap up by open, it is 2nd gap up day where the gap we have yesterday was not filled.
2. yesterday was also a 2nd PP day not tagged so today is the 3rd one in same direction.
3. a run away gap is in the card should ES open at 75 or above, although an attempt to fill 1/2 the gap may happen some time within RTH.
Good luck!
Quote from saliva:
Man you just had to bring up my stop, didntcha?
I'm raising my stop to 1066.75 now that you have it all plastered over your chart.
To top out from 66 area ES must break below previous day close and having that as resistance.
Then PP tagging will start.
- Status