ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

oraclewizard77 · Oct 22, 2009

I thought market was going to fall based on yesterday giving a bearish signal. Thankfully, only traded short sim today, made real money on Tue. I think those that post their calls in this room have strong balls of steel. I personally don't like getting negative comments or pm's if I make a bad trade. Eventually will give up sim and do every day real money, but still working on my trading plan for my new system and I think I need another month of both sim and real trades. Also, been working on ninja trader to automate some of my order management so I don't have to watch the market once I am in a trade. Finally, figured out something I really like about it, but took a long time to understand how it works.

Quote from gearhead:

You and me both, bother. I've been trying to retool my models based on the behavior since March...few of my proven techniques have been working.

W4rl0ck · Oct 22, 2009

IMO looks like the euro can run another 1-1.5% to resistance fairly easily, so maybe Dow 10.2 / 10.3 k, SPX back to 1100+ everything being equal before anything serious on the downside.

YMMV.

jnorty · Oct 22, 2009

I've been in this game a long time also and i've never seen anything 1/10th mania like as i've seen the last 7 months. its been so tough as your mind registers how bad things are yet you see the mkt rip relentlessly ever higher. it just so tough to stay neutral and chase when you see so much bad stuff happening then you have days like yesterday that rip you when you go long. the hype from the media is deafening yet its all bullshit. if i came off the street and saw this qtrs earnings and the hype i'd swear earnings were up 50%. but the truth is earnings still down 19% and rev's down 15%

saliva · Oct 22, 2009

Quote from gearhead:

You and me both, brother. I've been trying to retool my models based on the behavior since March...few of my proven techniques have been working.

Yeah, well, that was the main reason why I jumped on the CL bandwagon, which I find to be so much better. It just feels more natural, especially without all the in-your-face manipulations. For those who are interested in sharing ideas on the topic of crude oil futures, join me at "CL Redux" thread.

At any rate, it kinda feels good to flip in and out of ES but, frankly, I don't miss this bitch one bit.

W4rl0ck · Oct 22, 2009

BTW SPX in euros is just coming back up to retest the 2003 bottom.

US markets in gold or euros takes out most of the fed manipulation and the picture is much clearer and reflects the current economy better IMO.

Good trading.

riskaddict · Oct 22, 2009

Quote from saliva:

Yeah, well, that was the main reason why I jumped on the CL bandwagon, which I find to be so much better. It just feels more natural, especially without all the in-your-face manipulations. For those who are interested in sharing ideas on the topic of crude oil futures, join me at "CL Redux" thread.

At any rate, it kinda feels good to flip in and out of ES but, frankly, I don't miss this bitch one bit.

Funny you mention that, the CL has been giving me heartburn. Coffee is the only thing I make money in but no threads on that :-p

I say f... it buy oil short the S&P until EUR/USD hits 1.75 and then reevaluate. Just use the dollar as a proxy don't trade it because it knocks the risk setup all out of whack.

kinggyppo · Oct 22, 2009

Quote from saliva:

You might find this laughable, but I've been trading for nearly 20 years and I've never seen anything remotely similar to what we witnessed in the past 6 months. I don't say this lightly because I also lost a lot of money as a result of my idiotic stubborness.

The last two days was the most bearish tape I have seen in a while and we were still only down like $1.00 on spy. Its really hard to have no bias/opinion on the market, especially when trading short or long has been profitable. Anyway you are not alone, keep at it.

jjj1000 · Oct 22, 2009

Quote from jnorty:

I've been in this game a long time also and i've never seen anything 1/10th mania like as i've seen the last 7 months. its been so tough as your mind registers how bad things are yet you see the mkt rip relentlessly ever higher. it just so tough to stay neutral and chase when you see so much bad stuff happening then you have days like yesterday that rip you when you go long. the hype from the media is deafening yet its all bullshit. if i came off the street and saw this qtrs earnings and the hype i'd swear earnings were up 50%. but the truth is earnings still down 19% and rev's down 15%

Me too, I've never seen a stock market so relentless to the upside. And, how much is the unemployment again, 10%?? Total bubble, created with the FED's money (our money). It is going to burst for sure, but got be cautious when shorting against a bubble

JSSPMK · Oct 22, 2009

Quote from kinggyppo:

The last two days was the most bearish tape I have seen in a while and we were still only down like $1.00 on spy...

Another major sell off might turn out to be a big problem, they don't want it to happen, it is clear. I am betting on the Qs to go down, I have no idea whether sell off will be controlled or more panic selling, all I know is that the Weekly chart is too overextended & histo is almost at centreline - it is a mother of all slants. Mind you oil recently had a similar one which got negated.

I agree with LC that the only thing they can have up their sleeve is to trash USD even lower, 71? Why not? It does look weak. It's a boil in the bag, that's what it is. What are they trying to prove, that buy & hold does work after all? Not even funny.

saliva · Oct 22, 2009

Quote from riskaddict:

Funny you mention that, the CL has been giving me heartburn. Coffee is the only thing I make money in but no threads on that I say f... it buy oil short the S&P until EUR/USD hits 1.75 and then reevaluate. Just use the dollar as a proxy don't trade it because it knocks the risk setup all out of whack.

risky, I took notice of your trades in the last few days. But rest assured, schizo and I have it all figured out bro. So swing on by and we might all prosper.