ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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I have been trading the differences between the NQ and ES the last month with success until I got hit hard being short NQ/long ES during the Apple earnings. It was different than the Intel earnings where the NQ & ES rebalanced with each other in time.

Anyway, I've been trying to play catch up overly expecting the NQ to "rebalance" back to when I was trading on Monday with the ES 1085 area vs. the NQ 1735 area. Today was another good opportunity mostly missed when the NQ 1778-1779 & ES 1097-1098; I was already in and rode most of the difference the wrong way. Then I lost money during the afternoon drop I was actually watching for as I expected the NQ to "catch up" while heading south which it never did (was looking for the NQ to get back to at least 1040 when the ES got to 1080 to get out).
I started back tracking a little further and realized that my expectations may have been a bit off due to not having the NQ and ES charted on top of each other vs. just comparing two charts and doing numbers on paper. I also missed a good opportunity to cash out/rebalance yesterday when I was in with the ES 1083 & NQ 1743, but again I was looking for more of a "rebalancing" than I should have due to - in part - not having them charted together and held on back to ES 1087 &. NQ 1754.

So......
Any constructive thoughts/help?
Does anyone else do this?
How do you chart the ES on top of the NQ on tradestation?
 
Quote from Nexen:


...Start accumulating, see you at new highs, wont take long.
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What is worth noting is that Qs during the last 4 upthrust cycles (Daily chart) have gone up an average of ~+3.75, this time it's more like +1.5 finishing the day with a bearish hammer.

What do you think about that?
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

What is worth noting is that Qs during the last 4 upthrust cycles (Daily chart) have gone up an average of ~+3.75, this time it's more like +1.5 finishing the day with a bearish hammer.

What do you think about that?
More...

I think earnings will keep beating because companies guided absurdly low in the past quarters, on top of the harsh reductions in costs of operations that makes even easier.

Economy is healing itself, everyone claims unemployment is out of control. However, unemployment is the last thing that fixes itself in times of trouble. Add a dollar that is getting weaker and weaker, and well, there is no stopping this bull until that green paper is worthy of something.

I could not give a crap about technical analysis, I'm not saying it's worthless, I just do better using fundamentals.

Good luck to you with the shorts, you gonna need it.
 
Quote from Nexen:

I think earnings will keep beating because companies guided absurdly low in the past quarters, on top of the harsh reductions in costs of operations that makes even easier.

Economy is healing itself, everyone claims unemployment is out of control. However, unemployment is the last thing that fixes itself in times of trouble. Add a dollar that is getting weaker and weaker, and well, there is no stopping this bull until that green paper is worthy of something.

I could not give a crap about technical analysis, I'm not saying it's worthless, I just do better using fundamentals.

Good luck to you with the shorts, you gonna need it.
More...

But buying dips also doesn't work all the time, look at yesterdays' close. If one was to mismanage the risk banking on strength of the trend could have been "killed" yesterday afternoon. Last two months haven't been good for me, but that happens. People that do extremely well in bull markets can do much worse during bear phases & vice versa :)

P.S. Why are you ruling out a possibility of inflation?
 
Ever since the introduction of index trading, derivatives on stocks, corporate officials making more $ than the shareholders, etc. fundamental no long matters on stocks.

Understand that is a good starting point.

Quote from Nexen:

I think earnings will keep beating because companies guided absurdly low in the past quarters, on top of the harsh reductions in costs of operations that makes even easier.

Economy is healing itself, everyone claims unemployment is out of control. However, unemployment is the last thing that fixes itself in times of trouble. Add a dollar that is getting weaker and weaker, and well, there is no stopping this bull until that green paper is worthy of something.

I could not give a crap about technical analysis, I'm not saying it's worthless, I just do better using fundamentals.

Good luck to you with the shorts, you gonna need it.
More...
 
Was short a long time before the break. Like I said I was about to close it when I saw some selling come in around 3:15.

Original target was @ 1080-1078. After the heavy selling came in I knew it was a keeper and held for ~80 exited 81.

Quote from Anna K.:

thanks, did you enter on the break of the 3d bottom?
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