ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[romik]

Phase 3 is gotta be a killer, thanks for the journey Izzy, certainly taught me a lot.

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

10-05-09 08:09 AM

10-02-09 08:42 AM

09-15-09 07:54 AM

09-10-09 07:54 AM

Short 20 @1030.25 basis Dec 09
Initial stop 1078.00

--Staying put for now. (09/15/2009)--
--Staying put for now. (10/02/2009)--
--Continuing this position today (10/05/2009)--
--Trade stopped out for 47.75 pts loss--

This should solidify the point that I make, that when the trend is up, only longs should be taken. When trend is down, only shorts should be taken.

Phase 2 of the journal is now complete.

(Phase 1 demonstrated the kneejerk and reckless nature of the failed day trader. Phase 2 shows the advantages of trend following and risk management).

Phase 3 now begins: Advantages of using breakouts within trends for entries. ----

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from volente_00:

When does Phase 4 start?





Scaling out to smooth the equity curve to become more profitable overall.

scaling not allowed, way to rub it in by the way, that's just mean.

 

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from volente_00:

When does Phase 4 start?

Scaling out to smooth the equity curve to become more profitable overall.

Personally, that works for me too.

But when you're sitting on a mountain of cash, have access to position trading multiple markets, and don't have to worry about such things, I guess it isn't that important.

It's all a matter of perspctive.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from kinggyppo:

Hey LC can you tell who is selling in here is it locals or commercials thanks.

Huge block buying at open across the gap up stocks. Hedge funds got burned on their shorts?

That was done within 1st 15 min.

No real selling at all now - we are below VWAP and no sizable program sell so far.

edit: On cash basis, SPX holding the previous yearly high at this point in time, so my projected 76 area for ES is a bit too low relative to SPX.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

This should solidify the point that I make, that when the trend is up, only longs should be taken. When trend is down, only shorts should be taken.

...and your definition of trend is...

See, mine (although not the best) is when we just crossed the SMA that's when we are already in a trend. This doesn't catch the top or bottom of the trend, but it let's you not to take a position against it.

I told you guys around 1050 that we would bounce from the SMA on the daily and continue up, and as it happens I was right.

Now would I lie to you?

Quote from Pekelo a week ago:

I think we will bounce at the SMA on the daily which is 48 cash, 44 ES and then continue going upward, probably tomorrow. Until that line is breached, we are still in an upswing.

 

[vmaxer]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Stick to your plan if you have confidence in its past performance.

I was just thinking out loud to help myself concentrate. =)

Trade was based on H&S + Grail which I should have had more confidence in. To make it worse, I added at 79.75 and moved the stop down to 81.75 and now I'm out.

My original plan was short 5@84, cover 3@80 and move stop to B/E on last 2. With the next targets at 77 and 75 (or long signal).

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from vmaxer:

Trade was based on H&S + Grail which I should have had more confidence in. To make it worse, I added at 79.75 and moved the stop down to 81.75 and now I'm out.

My original plan was short 5@84, cover 3@80 and move stop to B/E on last 2. With the next targets at 77 and 75 (or long signal).

One way to reduce anxiety in a case like this, move stop to BE or BE + 1 tick profit for some contracts. That way, at worst, stop out on that portion with no harm done.

You will still be able to participate in the trade with reduced risk.

That gives you time to cool, then think and act with a calm mind.

Hope this helps.

 

[ASusilovic]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Huge block buying at open across the gap up stocks. Hedge funds got burned on their shorts?

That was done within 1st 15 min.

No real selling at all now - we are below VWAP and no sizable program sell so far.

edit: On cash basis, SPX holding the previous yearly high at this point in time, so my projected 76 area for ES is a bit too low relative to SPX.

Goldman monopoly is releasing tomorrow earnings. They are "sharing" their market manipulation strategy with JPM's desk.

 

[ASusilovic]

High Frequency Buy Market if touched order 1081.50, volume 4000.

Thank you for knowing where culmination point is...

 

[Lawrence Chan]

6 pt range. Low volume. Low program trading activities all across.

I guess the fact is in,

Goldman earning is as big as fed meeting announcement.