ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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I prefer lower high breaks if possible.
Otherwise I believe a move to 1060 cash first is needed.
I like the market commentary of Kevin Haggerty (I may be alone).
His opinion is there is an 80/20 chance market revisits 940-950 before 1100 for what its worth.
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The SPX hit another new high yesterday at 1049.74, and is now +57.4% off the 3/6/09 666/79 low in just 133 days. The rate of advance is 0.4312 per day, and that is the most since the June/1932-March 1935 ROA at 0.43.
This bull cycle advance within a secular bear market started from a highly significant Fib key price zone to the 1982, 1974, and 1932 lows from 665-602, which included the .618RT`s to all three of those historical lows. It has also been a spike rally from the "Panic of 2008" spike down, which was, and still is, a Derivative Meltdown of unprecedented magnitude, with more to follow, especially if this administrations mandates are passed as proposed.
The average SPX daily range continues to narrow during this rally, which is evidenced by the rising wedge, and there is now a 3 up and 3 down negative momentum divergence as you can see on the SPX daily chart, so it is obviously not a technical buy point. It used to take cash to move a market up, but not anymore as the market can be manipulated by programs (PPT), the built in long bias of ETF buying, and also the current strict enforcement of the Short Sale Rule. This is evidenced by the continued low volume as the SPX is pushed higher.
Most long term investors that rode the 2000-2002, and 2007-2009 bear markets down will probably do the same thing the next time around, but just maybe some will be thinking about preservation of capital this time, and have a plan to avoid another -50% decline, which requires a 100% gain to get even. If your broker did nothing on the sell or hedging sides for you in the previous bear markets, than it might be wise to get someone else (nice way of saying it).
The SPX rising wedge with narrowing daily range has resulted in many contracted volatility opportunities for day traders, and I will cover this in the next commentary on Thursday.
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His opinion is there is an 80/20 chance market revisits 940-950 before 1100 for what its worth.
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The SPX hit another new high yesterday at 1049.74, and is now +57.4% off the 3/6/09 666/79 low in just 133 days. The rate of advance is 0.4312 per day, and that is the most since the June/1932-March 1935 ROA at 0.43.
This bull cycle advance within a secular bear market started from a highly significant Fib key price zone to the 1982, 1974, and 1932 lows from 665-602, which included the .618RT`s to all three of those historical lows. It has also been a spike rally from the "Panic of 2008" spike down, which was, and still is, a Derivative Meltdown of unprecedented magnitude, with more to follow, especially if this administrations mandates are passed as proposed.
The average SPX daily range continues to narrow during this rally, which is evidenced by the rising wedge, and there is now a 3 up and 3 down negative momentum divergence as you can see on the SPX daily chart, so it is obviously not a technical buy point. It used to take cash to move a market up, but not anymore as the market can be manipulated by programs (PPT), the built in long bias of ETF buying, and also the current strict enforcement of the Short Sale Rule. This is evidenced by the continued low volume as the SPX is pushed higher.
Most long term investors that rode the 2000-2002, and 2007-2009 bear markets down will probably do the same thing the next time around, but just maybe some will be thinking about preservation of capital this time, and have a plan to avoid another -50% decline, which requires a 100% gain to get even. If your broker did nothing on the sell or hedging sides for you in the previous bear markets, than it might be wise to get someone else (nice way of saying it).
The SPX rising wedge with narrowing daily range has resulted in many contracted volatility opportunities for day traders, and I will cover this in the next commentary on Thursday.
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A cabbie told me a story last night, in the 60s he worked as a security man in London, once a week they used to pick up around £5m from a bank, quite possibly it was the BOE, he recalls that they have been told many times that if they are ever to be attacked they ought to release the money, as it's only paper which is replaceable. Imagine them saying that when paper had to be backed by gold? Impossible.
What a squeeze on EURJPY.
Every single resistance for EURUSD is taken out since march to facilitate this process of popping up the US stock mkt indices.
I guess they want 1.50 by year end.
Maybe they are hoping for 2.0 would be better.
My bad, not hoping for, planned for. =)
I guess they want 1.50 by year end.
Maybe they are hoping for 2.0 would be better.
My bad, not hoping for, planned for. =)
The problem is,
to pop USD, you need to buy USD and park those money in some vehicle like .... oh no ... US Bonds and stocks.
=)
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