ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from Specterx:

You know, most of the time I just laugh at the guys that talk about a manipulated market, etc.

But this is really making me wonder. Suspicious short squeeze/runup at noontime, on a Friday, having a go at taking out daily-chart resistance that was just crushed a few days ago on the highest-volume day in five months.

I realize the market can do anything at any time, but this (especially if the 1015 area goes) is really pushing it.
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HFT MM bots. They have no mercy. Just discover and destroy.

They are bots and their combined effect results in patterns we can detect.

Someone obviously toyed with them lately. Something big is coming.
 
I just wonder how can anyone manipulate the whole market, when everything move in coordination, forex up comparing to dollar, commodities up, bonds down, when index futures go up. Even if you have unlimited cash, you do not have enough hands to do the thing in short notice. It just does not make sense.:confused:
 
Quote from pcvix:

Would you care to elaborate, LC?

Thanks.
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MM bots try to guess (or using the "god feed" know for fact) and discover the orderflows.

i.e.

Front run mode - outside papers with large sell orders coming then front run them, vice versa.

Creation mode - counter day traders' positions as stop levels are very close, to create possible liquidity at the other end.

But lately, something interesting happened - when the HFT orders pile in to shoot thru multiple levels, someone step in to counter them with similar size at a price point than the bots cannot unload with a profit. Forcing them to puke.
 
Quote from adadadog:

I just wonder how can anyone manipulate the whole market, when everything move in coordination, forex up comparing to dollar, commodities up, bonds down, when index futures go up. Even if you have unlimited cash, you do not have enough hands to do the thing in short notice. It just does not make sense.:confused:
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Makes perfect sense.

Retail daytraders around the world all add up together does not even account for more than 10% capital of the tradable markets.

A simple example, during 2008 when one of the bigger hedge fund was unloading their portfolio at about 1 bilion value at the time, ES tanked whole day with no pullback > 3 to 4 pts.

The bots kept riding the wave as they knew more selling was coming.

Most human traders, on the other hand, was looking for a bounce to trade with ...

Edit: CNBC reported about the unloading the day after :)
 
Any chances of this trend to go hit VWAP (1007?) or is this a melt-up day?

I see no specific and/or Pekelo-ish pattern on the chart
 
Quote from Decel:

Any chances of this trend to go hit VWAP (1007?) or is this a melt-up day?

I see no specific and/or Pekelo-ish pattern on the chart
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I'm looking for between 1012 and VWAP, maybe 1010ish for a test. No confidence in lower.
 
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