ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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My dream is that one day the sheeple will realize that their government intentionally devaluing their currency to prop up asset prices and monetize the debt is not something to celebrate.

On the cash SPX side, we have not had two down weeks in a row since this rally started in March, except for the one single correction they allowed in June. Last week was slightly negative so they will want tomorrow to close over 1004.09. Is there anyone left to challenge them?
 
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Quote from opt789:

My dream is that one day the sheeple will realize that their government intentionally devaluing their currency to prop up asset prices and monetize the debt is not something to celebrate.

On the cash SPX side, we have not had two down weeks in a row since this rally started in March, except for the one single correction they allowed in June. Last week was slightly negative so they will want tomorrow to close over 1004.09. Is there anyone left to challenge them?
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
I don’t know how that is a salient point to my post, but I do wish I had a dollar for every time someone posts that on this website. I don’t have a problem with the market rallying, but if they only way they can do it is by destroying the entire net worth of the country then I am not overtly pleased.
 
Quote from opt789:

My dream is that one day the sheeple will realize that their government intentionally devaluing their currency to prop up asset prices and monetize the debt is not something to celebrate.

On the cash SPX side, we have not had two down weeks in a row since this rally started in March, except for the one single correction they allowed in June. Last week was slightly negative so they will want tomorrow to close over 1004.09. Is there anyone left to challenge them?

The US government is not popping asset price.

It is trashing USD and as a result, asset classes that are immune (fully or partially) to US internal consumption failures become inflation hedge.

e.g. various commodities with real demand, especially those that are not affected by economic downturn like grains which solely depends on population increase. or, stock prices on companies with international income.

It is a grand experiment on the theory that, since consumer spending and economic activities depend on sentiment (or their mood swings) and that sentiment depends on wealth effect - the sense of wealth printed in most people's asset portfolio with almost no correlation to the exchange rate, thus supporting the asset prices MAY in theory in turn improve economic activities as a whole.

Since it is an experiment, and no one has tried this before, it is very hard to tell how it is going to end. =D

Edit: A funny version of above - When a dog is happy it licks its owner, the dog is not happy and now stop licking the owner. Normally, a normal person will try to make the dog happy so that the dog will show its affection again. This dog owner, however, opened the dog's mouth, pull the tongue out with a clamp, and wipe that on his own face, thinking that the dog is now happy again. :D
 
LC,
I don’t disagree, but I wish that the following was not true: “the sense of wealth printed in most people's asset portfolio with almost no correlation to the exchange rate.” I also wish my wife and kids would always do as I ask, so we will see how that turns out as well.

I know you are a daytrader, but what is your longer term view of this market?
 
Quote from opt789:

LC,
I don’t disagree, but I wish that the following was not true: “the sense of wealth printed in most people's asset portfolio with almost no correlation to the exchange rate.” I also wish my wife and kids would always do as I ask, so we will see how that turns out as well.

I know you are a daytrader, but what is your longer term view of this market?

Similar to B1S2 ... except that I factor in the currency value.

If EURUSD going back to the German Mark days of 2 USD to 1 Mark ... it is very hard for S&P to print much lower than 500, as most international companies will be making a killing in the exchange rate alone.
 
Quote from adadadog:

A wedge, will break downward?
Actually, it is part of a much bigger one.
is it going to have a big drop soon, 20points?
Notice it failed to touch up edge, indicating the breakdown will happen in current down move.
 

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ok got it. anyways I was stopped out on that short, -1.25

Quote from oraclewizard77:

I guess it depends on your definition. On my short term chart there was a top around 1004.50 - 1004.75 and bottom at around 1002. Now this could be just a small short term range.

At price around 1003.75 - 1004, I got a signal to go short. Price did start trending down to the bottom of the range which was my target, trying to get around 2 points.

Confirmations that price will continue falling was massive red volume, and I could have gotten more than a point in profit.

Then on longer term chart, I got an indication called sign of southern cross that price did not want to fall anymore so it may just go back to top of this small range. Goal for me is usually to try to get around 2 points of profit, but I could see shorts hoping for 1002 to break to get 4 - 6 points of profit.
 
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