ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from Insearch:

Just out of curiosity, what would it take for you to change your mind about the uptrend?
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Everyone trades on a different timeframe, so my break in the trend is probably pretty different from everyone else's change-in-trend.

But the following are what (I'm) going to need to see to break this trend:

1. Lower Highs - this market "just won't quit". We're currently sitting above 1000 on the SPX, anything above it is a continuation of the uptrend.

2. A break in the uptrend - I would consider 1000-to-970 to be a trading range, and if 970 breaks, it's a sweet drop back down to the 870-850 area. :0) Along with the pre-requisite lower highs and lower lows, of course.

3. Strong selling - we haven't had one single day of dedicated selling since this trend started over two weeks ago. Sure we've had some consolidation of gains and then more upward movmement, but no panic, no pain and no blood in the streets so far.

So those are my thoughts. However it works out, I'll trade'em as I see'em.

Good trading
 
That's what I see:

USD (77.74) - to take a dump

VIX (24.89) - to climb

Gold (967.1) - to try take out 1000 (Oh God, not again)

Oil (71.42) - that bastard thing is a no brainer it just follows SPX

SPX (1,005.65) - hmm, probably up, although it's already been a hell of a continuous climb

GS (165.17) - possible DT, will drag SPX down if in play

<img src=http://creoleindc.typepad.com/rantings_of_a_creole_prin/images/see_drunk_close.jpg>

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$ should fall vs gold, but don't expect much vs EUR since they are in bad share too.

Quote from JSSPMK:

That's what I see:

USD (77.74) - to take a dump

VIX (24.89) - to climb

Gold (967.1) - to try take out 1000 (Oh God, not again)

Oil (71.42) - that bastard thing is a no brainer it just follows SPX

SPX (1,005.65) - hmm, probably up, although it's already been a hell of a continuous climb

GS (165.17) - possible DT, will drag SPX down if in play

:)
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On hourly chart, ES is forming a bearish triangle and a divergent RSI. It will mostly have a violent break down most likely today or tomorrow.
 
Quote from MandelbrotSet:

That's too bad.

After some of your commentary, I decided to lookup the info on the COT that you've been referring to, and you are correct, the institutionals (professionals, hedge funds, etc.) are more heavily weighted Short than Long currently.

But I think they also use the ES as a hedging tool, as well as using multiple stratetegies when trading (stocks, options, legging-in-and-out of positions, etc.), so the information needs to be taken in context.

Also, it goes without saying that this monster uptrend (14 days and counting) is still going strong.
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It is not that bad as I am out without a scratch. =)

Without the bots, this rally would still happen, but probably stopped at the last top where B1S2 initiated his short.

There is absolutely no new inflow of money into US equities.

The brilliance of those who figured out using bots to keep the US equity market staying afloat implies that it is something that has been done before, thus the proficiencies in execution of such plan. The bots are just new tools.

There are real rallies and there are manipulated ones. This last leg in the melt up is the latter.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

I think in a similar way, but it would play out faster:

Tomorrow we drop 15 or so points, we rally back and make the 2nd top on Thursday and down we go from Friday...
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One thing odd is that normal daily level topping formations are missing in this leg - no 2 gap ups in a row, no extreme tick index buying 2 days in a row, and no up gaps greater than average day range, etc.

It's like waiting for something to happen but instead of going sideway, it drifted up.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

One thing odd is that normal daily level topping formations are missing in this leg - no 2 gap ups in a row, no extreme tick index buying 2 days in a row, and no up gaps greater than average day range, etc.

It's like waiting for something to happen but instead of going sideway, it drifted up.
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LC,

HFT teamsters want to make an ass of you, me and the whole investing world. Economic recovery is absolutely not the question. There are clear signs of stabilizing factors, but the way we reached these highs is highly suspicious !

There has not been the normal wave behavior one would expect but herd like "match fixing" on behalf of certain entities. Do you really believe that HFT occurs in certain moments "randomly" with volume 15k - 30k ?

Never ever !
 
Go long or go home. How about long around 998.5? If it does not hold short till 991 or even 984.5 and finally 973. Looks like every 10 points or so. Will there be 1004ish range?


Edit: It smells like nitroglycerin(e). Don't shake it too much. We might survive till Friday, but some people must know the "Employment Situation" today.
 
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