ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[Roman Candle]

Intraday trading at these levels is a waste of time.

 

[Michael.jstocks]

long 1000.50
T-day tomorrow. Also, we tend to drif up after hours most days.
Stop at 988.
probably big rally tomorrwow for tday, then flat wednesday, then big rally for T-day again, then rally on friday.

 

[ivanbaj]

I am stuck with the short at 998.75. In a big bull market with a close on the top of the day. It has to drop a bit so I can get out. The PIO better suck tomorrow.

I will be OK won't I?

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from Chuck Krug:

thanks

Most recently Prechter made both the upward (Long) for the rally into the summer of 2007 and culminating with a leveraged short recommendation of the S&P 500 futures on July 17 2007 through an interim report mailed out intraday. This position (the short of the S&P 500 futures from the 1500s) was maintained until February 2009 representing nearly 900 points with the index at around 680's. Prechter also predicted a large and B wave rally with target in the 1015 to 1050 area, and lasting for a Fibonacci 38.2% of the length of the decline from the highs in the S&P 500. Once wave B higher completes, Prechter expects the largest impact of the bearmarket will occur.

The largest impact sometimes happen through war, regime change, etc.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from Michael.jstocks:

long 1000.50
T-day tomorrow. Also, we tend to drif up after hours most days.

Had you read my T-day expectancy thread you would know that Tuesdays are a coinflip, at least based on the last 5 months and those were in a bullmarket.

Not to mention we have the 2nd gap going on so any updrift should be heavily shorted...

 

[opt789]

Quote from Pekelo:

Not to mention we have the 2nd gap going on so any updrift should be heavily shorted...

Basically agree with that.
Everyone is now assuming the gap down near 900 will never be filled, but our most recent one from the mid 80s is asking for it especially since the 975 gap was not filled. I don’t know about heavily shorting it, but 985 should be filled before 1015 is traded. My swing trade is short 1001.25, target 985, stop 1009.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from Pekelo:

Had you read my T-day expectancy thread you would know that Tuesdays are a coinflip, at least based on the last 5 months and those were in a bullmarket.

Not to mention we have the 2nd gap going on so any updrift should be heavily shorted...

I posted a similar testing result quite sometime ago here.

Up to that point in time, Tuesday was also coin flip and Thursday has a very slight upward bias.

 

[oraclewizard77]

I don't do live trades after hours, how much margin do you need per contract?

(For intra-day I was told $ 500.00 per contract.)

After my analyse of the market, I put in a sim trade trade with a sell stop at 999 and a target of 996 with a stop at 1003. This will become a real money trade in the morning if the market has not already reached my target.

So anyway to answer your question, I do expect a sell off on Tuesday that can get you out at a profit assuming you don't get a margin call. Do you use stop losses, or just get out when you feel too much pain?

Hopefully, this helps.

Quote from ivanbaj:

I am stuck with the short at 998.75. In a big bull market with a close on the top of the day. It has to drop a bit so I can get out. The PIO better suck tomorrow.

I will be OK won't I?

 

[ivanbaj]

Quote from oraclewizard77:

I don't do live trades after hours, how much margin do you need per contract?

(For intra-day I was told $ 500.00 per contract.)

After my analyse of the market, I put in a sim trade trade with a sell stop at 999 and a target of 996 with a stop at 1003. This will become a real money trade in the morning if the market has not already reached my target.

So anyway to answer your question, I do expect a sell off on Tuesday that can get you out at a profit assuming you don't get a margin call. Do you use stop losses, or just get out when you feel too much pain?

Hopefully, this helps.

Margin is not a problem I trade 1 contract per $20,000 but pain is a problem. I am not in my comfort zone on this one. There was big volume traded later in the day around 999 in a pattern that tells me that there is down potential at least to 994. But... overnight sucks. Most likely I will have to bail out at a lost.

 

[ivanbaj]

I am out at 999.75 can't take it.