ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from JSHINV:

I rarely post. I even rarely lurk. But, I have been lurking recently.

It depends a lot on how you set up the 50/200 day MA. If you set it up daily for 20 years using the SPX (cash index) 50 day EMA and SPX 200 day EMA, the 50 EMA hasn't crossed above the 200 EMA since June 2003. The last time this 20 year 50 day EMA crossed below the 200 EMA was in January 2008. Once there is a golden cross, it is real, it lasts - one way or the other. I have found no better defintion based on looking way back on the charts of a bull and bear market than this measure.
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A Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500, and this occurred on 23 June.

ML reasearch indicates:

Since January 1928, the S&P 500 has generated 42 Golden Cross signals that have on average preceded a 12-month return of 9.3%, exceeding the average 12- month return of 7.1% for the index. The S&P 500 has had 15 Golden Crosses associated with NBER recessions. When associated with recessions, Golden Crosses show higher returns 3, 6, and 12 months out of 7.4%, 8.3%, and 19.2%, respectively.
Today’s Golden Cross on the S&P 500 was registered during this NBER recession, which began in the United States in December 2007. It points to a rally up to 1065 on the S&P 500 12-months out or June of next year.


This board is mostly very bearish on S&P, but Golden Cross is one of the most reliable indicators.
Can anybody on this thread possibly change his/her mind?


B1S2, do you place any significance in it? Are you still longer term bearish?
 
Quote from Anna K.:

A Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500, and this occurred on 23 June.

ML reasearch indicates:

Since January 1928, the S&P 500 has generated 42 Golden Cross signals that have on average preceded a 12-month return of 9.3%, exceeding the average 12- month return of 7.1% for the index. The S&P 500 has had 15 Golden Crosses associated with NBER recessions. When associated with recessions, Golden Crosses show higher returns 3, 6, and 12 months out of 7.4%, 8.3%, and 19.2%, respectively.
Today’s Golden Cross on the S&P 500 was registered during this NBER recession, which began in the United States in December 2007. It points to a rally up to 1065 on the S&P 500 12-months out or June of next year.


This board is mostly very bearish on S&P, but Golden Cross is one of the most reliable indicators.
Can anybody on this thread possibly change his/her mind?


B1S2, do you place any significance in it? Are you still longer term bearish?
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Possible answers :

1) This time it´s different. :D
2) ML is right. So what ? Change your positioning tonight from short to long. Invest a mouseclick. :)
3) Who believes ML Reasearch anymore after ML lost 10 billions od USD throug wrong bets on CDO´s ? :)
 
Quote from volente_00:

A pull back in ES from 918-920 to 909 -910 will set up another right shoulder IHS.
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Target should be 930/31

Will B1S2 leave his stop on 929 today?

Should he take his profits of +20 pts? (maybe still possible if IHS is confirmed)

Please let us know, tks. :cool:

Edit: this IHS is the one at the 60'
 
But there is another IHS on the daily with the right shoulder being at the 899-900 area. neckline at 919

That one would have the target of 950ish

Good luck to all. :)
 
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