ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[saliva]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Options had very little influence on ES prices as expected. Options interest analysis falls into the category of "too much information" when it comes to trading ES--Ishmael

It's more sinister than that in my newbie mind. What makes the options player any more different from those who trade stocks or futures? These people, no different from their options counterpart, buy stocks or futures when they believe prices will rise in the foreseeable future and vice versa. So what the hell gives the options players a monopoly when it comes to predicting the future? That's plain silly.

As stated earlier, equity futures or options are merely tails. The real dog is the stock market. You think the tail can wag the dog time after time? Get real for once.

 

[BoyBrutus]

Good points guys.

Came across this article from when you mentioned Japan, seems the crashing nikkei had a lot to do with that Oct 1990 low, plus the S&L's debacle you mentioned

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/06/if-youre-bearish-1991-nikkei-redux.html

Maybe a parallel can be drawn to the forced liquidation that caused the 666 low.

 

[Ramp]

Hello Everyone,

Awesome ES journal, I've been following for some time - lots of great traders, discussion and amusing banter. I'm still working a career and trading simultaneously so I'm busy during the day but may try and post some live trades and analysis now and then - hope that's cool with everyone. Cheers!

Ramp

 

[riskymove]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Options had very little influence on ES prices as expected. Options interest analysis falls into the category of "too much information" when it comes to trading ES--Ishmael

I actually kind of like your trading style and cannot argue with your results but you are dead wrong here. Options markets are huge - and volume has exploded over the past four years. The open interest on a nominal scale is quite phenomenal. Friday we opened high on some massive volume - we did more volume in equities (cash markets) in the first 30 minutes of trading than we do in 75 to 80% of most days in total as market makers cleaned out their books with options that expire on the open. Then, from 3:30 on til the close we did more whopper volume. You think there was a reason the ES couldn't move all day Friday? Above 925 cash markets lived tons of calls that would go out ITM - sellside lives short - below 920 tons of puts that expire ITM sellside lives extremely long if exercised. They cannot afford to get exercised on that much even with the hedging that goes on. You think options don't matter - check out the levels on JPM BAC and AAPL this week. They move from one huge level to another - helps clean out inventory before the expiration. I will give you that it definitely matters less in the SPX overall than individual names but to say it doesn't matter? You're just watering something down because you don't want to deal with it imho. Nice trading all - Happy Father's Day to all you guys with kiddos!

 

[trackstar]

Quote from Ramp:

Hello Everyone,

Awesome ES journal, I've been following for some time - lots of great traders, discussion and amusing banter. I'm still working a career and trading simultaneously so I'm busy during the day but may try and post some live trades and analysis now and then - hope that's cool with everyone. Cheers!

Ramp

Welcome to the thread.

 

[saliva]

Alright, taking a short position at 915.75

SL above 20.

 

[saliva]

Quote from riskymove:

I actually kind of like your trading style and cannot argue with your results but you are dead wrong here. Options markets are huge - and volume has exploded over the past four years. The open interest on a nominal scale is quite phenomenal. Friday we opened high on some massive volume - we did more volume in equities (cash markets) in the first 30 minutes of trading than we do in 75 to 80% of most days in total as market makers cleaned out their books with options that expire on the open. Then, from 3:30 on til the close we did more whopper volume. You think there was a reason the ES couldn't move all day Friday? Above 925 cash markets lived tons of calls that would go out ITM - sellside lives short - below 920 tons of puts that expire ITM sellside lives extremely long if exercised. They cannot afford to get exercised on that much even with the hedging that goes on. You think options don't matter - check out the levels on JPM BAC and AAPL this week. They move from one huge level to another - helps clean out inventory before the expiration. I will give you that it definitely matters less in the SPX overall than individual names but to say it doesn't matter? You're just watering something down because you don't want to deal with it imho. Nice trading all - Happy Father's Day to all you guys with kiddos!

Oh, so ure now talking about hedging and not about predicting the future outright?

Suffice to say, those who dabble in the options market are no more stupid than those in the stock or the futures market. But they're no less muddled in their prediction either.

 

[jason586]

Short 916.00 - Limit order filled while out watering the yard at 20:12:14.

 

[saliva]

Lucky you. I had to move my order down a tick to get a fill.

 

[Pekelo]

Posted on the 11th:

Quote from Pekelo:

....we had the ascending triangle breakout today, which behaved like a Wyckoff thrust and came back into the range pretty fast.

We are going down....Tomorrow it should pass the range....

It took one extra day and the meltdown occured only on Monday. SPX touched below 905 four trading days after this chart...