ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Looking for possible pop to 16 to 18 (918) then some afternoon failure for new lows on the week

Edit: Sratch that thought - I missed the shooting star (inverted hammer) on 60 min chart (24 hr) - should imply drop very soon. New high on day negates....
 
Quote from Alvianse_D:

Below is a ES 405 minute RTH daily with a 2 period cumulative histogram average of $NYAD going back 103 periods from yesterday's close.; plus 1 standard deviation error bars of price.

Bears finally found value a whopping 14% below the value area low to start the rally. The signal was a continuation buy of the entire index on positive convergence, paired into the rally with 2 signals apiece as of close yesterday but today's open confirmed a continuation buy.

This last sell signal you'll note was a self-fulfilled prophecy caused by panic selling and/or a test of support of a legless area. Very few took their money out of the market from 950 initially. It was dumb money retail freaking out.

What do value investors like to do with dumb money? Right.

We were only 4% above value before the breakdown, and that's not value at all. All things being equal, reversion to the mean doesn't begin until, at least, 1035.

I still contend 980 is the next stop after this shake out.

I didn't trade it; timing with clueless retail trader freaks sucks. I'm still long from the bottom. I did however double up with BSDs at the bell this morning, though.

Two services I watch aim for 979 for a confirmed bottom. I know better.

But by all means, get those pikes!
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So you bought it at the rock bottom and will presumably hold it until 1035??? Sure, whatever. But it's my feeling the pikes also likes to open their trap only in hindsight. We're only up 10 points for the day and they all go ga-ga.

BTW where's ure stop on that supposedly most perfect trade of the decade? Geezus, you would probably never again see a 3-month performance like this in our lifetime.
 
Quote from saliva:

So you bought it at the rock bottom and will presumably hold it until 1035??? Sure, whatever. But it's my feeling the pikes also likes to open their trap only in hindsight. We're only up 10 points for the day and they all go ga-ga.

BTW where's ure stop on that supposedly most perfect trade of the decade? Geezus, you would probably never again see a 3-month performance like this in our lifetime.
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u will see it in the next 4 months to the downside
 
Quote from ammo:

u will see it in the next 4 months to the downside
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There's nothing to boast about having lost 40% of your account in 3 to 4 months...well, unless your a real piker hitching a ride with the mama bear. But as a fellow "pike" yourself, I assume you know what this pike is talking about. :D
 
Quote from saliva:

So you bought it at the rock bottom and will presumably hold it until 1035??? Sure, whatever. But it's my feeling the pikes also likes to open their trap only in hindsight. We're only up 10 points for the day and they all go ga-ga.

BTW where's ure stop on that supposedly most perfect trade of the decade? Geezus, you would probably never again see a 3-month performance like this in our lifetime.
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That's right I'm long from 700 but knew that based on the A/D Line price would breakout through the winter's pivot range before it turned. I wait for confirmation.

I don't care if you don't believe me, a cursory glance at the chart paints the picture and I trade that spreadsheet chart.

To answer your other question but more for others than your jack-ass-hattery: my stop is two ATR trailing - I double up after a pullback after hitting 3 ATR, three times, then scale out selling part of my inventory to others who don't know another ATR pop awaits. I scalp that minor swing and reverse.

It's called inverse martingale trend following.
 
spu's,nq,dow cant reach morning hi's, uvol dvol is cooling was 3/2, now less than 2/1, could be distribution up here,as far as the previous post connect 8/07 and 9/08 on a monthly and see if you still think we are still going above that line, that's a 22 mo res
 
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