ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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first piercing of the 200ma since we moved above it. Another necktie is now forming at 900 between the 200/50ma.

Maybe the 900 level is turning out to be much critical than initially thought, we will see.
 
Quote from saliva:

I'm quietly praying for a spectacular crash tomorrow. That way, we can finally clean up all this excess of delusional optimism. Second, this will also show that those who play options don't actually run the market. Options are after all the tail, not the dog. A tail cannot wag the dog for too long.
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Saliva,

First of all, I want you to know I say this with the utmost respect.

Why do you keep maintaining a preference for the short side ?

Why not just trade what's appropriate for the day. I know you go long or short regardless, still this bias can't be healthy for a trader because indirectly it affects you.
 
Quote from Nexen:

Saliva,

First of all, I want you to know I say this with the utmost respect.

Why do you keep maintaining a preference for the short side ?

Why not just trade what's appropriate for the day. I know you go long or short regardless, still this bias can't be healthy for a trader because indirectly it affects you.
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Thanks for bringing that to my attention. But you probably already know that I'm aware of this fact. How could you not as a trader?

BUT I know this market ain't normal. To say otherwise is a travesty. Truth be told, I had this same irksome feeling back in 2000 and again in 2007. Of course, those were in the heady days of the bull market while we're in a bear market, but the same analogy applies to my core belief that this market is outta whack.

Luckily, I have learned a valuable lesson throughout the years of not bucking the trend in support of my own idiotic belief. If I'm not going long outright, I will at least cover my short in a timely manner.

Anyway, I am by no means imposing my opinion on anyone. You should trade according to your own conviction.
 
Traders are funny people. You can be bearish but go long right at market open. You can be wrong but make money. You lose your opinions, not your money. etc, etc...
 
I rarely post. I even rarely lurk. But, I have been lurking recently.

It depends a lot on how you set up the 50/200 day MA. If you set it up daily for 20 years using the SPX (cash index) 50 day EMA and SPX 200 day EMA, the 50 EMA hasn't crossed above the 200 EMA since June 2003. The last time this 20 year 50 day EMA crossed below the 200 EMA was in January 2008. Once there is a golden cross, it is real, it lasts - one way or the other. I have found no better defintion based on looking way back on the charts of a bull and bear market than this measure.

Quote from newguy05:

first piercing of the 200ma since we moved above it. Another necktie is now forming at 900 between the 200/50ma.

Maybe the 900 level is turning out to be much critical than initially thought, we will see.
More...
 
Quote from saliva:

Thanks for bringing that to my attention. But you probably already know that I'm aware of this fact. How could you not as a trader?

BUT I know this market ain't normal. To say otherwise is a travesty. Truth be told, I had this same irksome feeling back in 2000 and again in 2007. Of course, those were in the heady days of the bull market while we're in a bear market, but the same analogy applies to my core belief that this market is outta whack.

Luckily, I have learned a valuable lesson throughout the years of not bucking the trend in support of my own idiotic belief. If I'm not going long outright, I will at least cover my short in a timely manner.

Anyway, I am by no means imposing my opinion on anyone. You should trade according to your own conviction.
More...

I see trends within trends within trends and within those trends I see retracements.

Regardless of fundamentals this constitutes a case for shorts and longs on nearly a daily basis for daytraders.

Imagine the 240 min and the 60 min were downtrending. Now imagine the afterhours kept pushing price way below last support and market opens 2-3% down, then as soon as the bell rings, market decides its time to test last resistance before going down further, a resistance that is 2-3% away from the market open, and such day becomes nothing but a steady uptrend. A bearish bias on such scenario would hurt you, when it 's only a retracement in a downtrend of say, the 60 min chart.

See my point?
 
20 year daily..That's one heck of a spreadsheet. How big is that file? A GB? lol

Post it, man. Please. If you post it I'll post a 10 year VWAP with 3 StDev bands. Not for nothing though.

Quote from JSHINV:

I rarely post. I even rarely lurk. But, I have been lurking recently.

It depends a lot on how you set up the 50/200 day MA. If you set it up daily for 20 years using the SPX (cash index) 50 day EMA and SPX 200 day EMA, the 50 EMA hasn't crossed above the 200 EMA since June 2003. The last time this 20 year 50 day EMA crossed below the 200 EMA was in January 2008. Once there is a golden cross, it is real, it lasts - one way or the other. I have found no better defintion based on looking way back on the charts of a bull and bear market than this measure.
More...
 
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