ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from austinp:

SPX / ES 1,000 level is high-odds to fulfill... quite probable by or before the end of option expiry next week.
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While it certainly could be tagged (and if it's going to happen or get anywhere close my guess it has to happen in next day or two), the open interest is immensely higher at lower strike levels. 800 is highest but completely improbable, followed by 900. There is decent OI at 1000 (talking SPX big contracts) but nothing close to 900 (as of yesterday's open interest - haven't checked for what was added yesterday).


We have been straight up for three months, and haven't really had more than one solid down day in a month. Could we hit 1000? Yes, but with a quad with coming next week and one side of the trade having seen all the action forever, the odds for some type of cleanout (on downside) - even if only for a day - seem very high to me.
 
Quote from riskymove:
... the odds for some type of cleanout (on downside) - even if only for a day - seem very high to me.
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"trend" is a very relative term. Between now and next week we could see 1000 from here, 900 from here or 900 and then 1000 from here. Or none of the above if the tapes remain comatose thru it all.

today could be a gap & go surge to new recent highs... but I'm currently short from 953.50 stop at entry=par and holding for +4pts or better on this trade.

measure the potential magnets above & below, trade the signals in front of us objectively. that's the tricky part... leaving bias and expectations (i.e. emotions) out of our way
 
Quote from austinp:

"trend" is a very relative term. Between now and next week we could see 1000 from here, 900 from here or 900 and then 1000 from here. Or none of the above if the tapes remain comatose thru it all.

today could be a gap & go surge to new recent highs... but I'm currently short from 953.50 stop at entry=par and holding for +4pts or better on this trade.

measure the potential magnets above & below, trade the signals in front of us objectively. that's the tricky part... leaving bias and expectations (i.e. emotions) out of our way
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Mentioned the day before that 30 was the line to defend to make price going higher.

Then it was 40 yesterday.

Today it is 50.

If successful we will see 60 to 80 for sure.

This 10 pts stair step method to "stablize" the stock market was used when Paulson first assumed his government position and we got a 6 months non-stop drift up at the time. It is simply a repeat of that strategy and it is much easier to execute today because there is no cross current to deal with as there are no other I Banks anymore. =)

1000 is possible as long as USD still in its steady crash mode.
i.e. no outside forces tipping the balance of power
 
Quote from saliva:

For the last two trading days, I have been monitoring T&S window like a hawk. What I definitely noticed is that the bids are getting hit in larger quantities than before. Two other macro economic factors play into the equation. Why did the market reacted so anemically when the payroll number came in better than expected last Friday? You would remember not too long ago the market on more than one occasion completely brushed off bad job numbers and rallied anyway. What was it different this time around? Today the TARP repayment was announced and yet it didn't go down all that well. One would think this market would take it very positively.
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Remember stocks, unlike commodities, by definition has no value unless it can produce income. At best, it is a place to park money.

Thus, people who owns stocks now, if not coming from active trading, must have bought their stuff at various levels in prior years. Averaging down in broad scale across the big caps, etc.

We are getting to a point where some of these positions are now breakeven or better. And those people wanted to unload badly. You are seeing exactly that process at work.

From my experience in analyzing tick data on stocks, the distribution started 2 weeks ago. But no heavy selling yet. i.e. Wait and see thinking dictated this run up.
 
I'm guessing today will be a good day to get outside. This market has a pattern as mentioned by Mr Chan. Squirt up move sideways wash rince and repeat.

I suspect we try and move above that 200dma in SP500, as we move sideways for the month of June.

The opportunities during the days have been few. Just set a buy order down near 930-940 and enjoy the day somewere other than in front of your screen.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

I was looking for a close below 920 yesterday to trigger a long term sell.

Did not happen.

Today is the second chance.
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While everything can happen, the gap up open today reduces the chances of a down day. A print above 952 opens the road to 980 then 1000 as many are already suggesting.

Good trading all.
 
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