ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

Lawrence Chan · May 31, 2009

Quote from ammo:

i think we are toast at 930 ish spx

EUR is zooming up and if USD stays on course for its melt down across all majors, assets with international exposures (i.e. stocks) are bounded to inflate.

Right now we are seeing every 1 to 2% decline in USD valuation you get a pump up of about 1% in stock mkt level.

Not sure when this is going to stop. ???

saliva · May 31, 2009

Quote from freehouse:

Saliva, there were actually a bunch of ES options that expired at the end of month.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equ...ini-sandp500-eom_contract_specifications.html

Thanks for the pointer. But considering a few factors, I don't believe the options on futures carries much weight. For example, unlike the equity options that are 1:100 to their underlying, the futures options has a 1:1 ratio with the underlying futures contract. Also the volume is usually dismal for these guys in comparison to, say, $OEX. For Friday, the largest volume was at 910 for 1797 lots. Is that enough to move ES by as much as 20 points in 10 minutes?

Since I ain't no dabbler in options, my analysis could be outta whack. Correct me if I'm wrong.

saliva · May 31, 2009

Quote from Spooz Top:

the power is north.....that move at the close should be more than enough to get us there next week.......given the PA at the close,i`d be looking to gap us up on the open.

Ya just might be right. I got burned so many times picking the damn top, I rather stay neutral. But the damn idiots just wouldn't leave me alone and decided to suck me back in, giving me a slippage of 4 points to boot!

I believe the fast action that you allude to is the complete blow top. Yes, we might travel up and test 930 but I rather like to think that we gap down and embark on an extended journey south for good this time.

Bon voyage!

ammo · May 31, 2009

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

EUR is zooming up and if USD stays on course for its melt down across all majors, assets with international exposures (i.e. stocks) are bounded to inflate.

Right now we are seeing every 1 to 2% decline in USD valuation you get a pump up of about 1% in stock mkt level.

Not sure when this is going to stop. ???

I agree LC, it's time for an int rate hike

ammo · May 31, 2009

sh 919.50, bernanke is on 60 minutes in 55 minutes

Decel · May 31, 2009

Quote from saliva:I believe the fast action that you allude to is the complete blow top. Yes, we might travel up and test 930 but I rather like to think that we gap down and embark on an extended journey south for good this time.

Didn't we already go test the 930 region on Friday?

414maple · May 31, 2009

927.75

saliva · May 31, 2009

Quote from Decel:

Didn't we already go test the 930 region on Friday?

Here's a tip for ya. The market rarely ever retouches the previous high. Its usually the one just below it. You see now why my broken crystal ball nailed 927.75, only to slip and fall by 4 points. So here's another tip. Place your order just a tick below that second high target.

So are we going down, or are we going down?

startraitor · May 31, 2009

Oil has touched my target on this leg on Friday, any pullback should be across the board, you can't have one without the other.

Decel · May 31, 2009

Quote from saliva:

Here's a tip for ya. The market rarely ever retouches the previous high. Its usually the one just below it. You see now why my broken crystal ball nailed 927.75, only to slip and fall by 4 points. So here's another tip. Place your order just a tick below that second high target.

So are we going down, or are we going down?

So where's this second high? On what timeframe are you speaking of?

On the 15min, the setups I play (RSI divergence in the overbought/oversold region) always has the second high/low higher/lower than the previous one. I think they're just triggering the stops before the change.

Right now though I'm underwater...