ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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As you all know I follow Eur/Jpy as the true gauge for equities. It is currently working out a very nice bullish Gartley on the H1. Once this works out (over the next few hours an into the early morning) there is huge divergence on H4.

130.85 is the weekly pivot- should be hit w/i the next 24-36 hours..

128.74 is the Weekly S1 - I expect it to be hit by Friday as ES (at the very least) touches 871.
 
Quote from lurefo:

I heard it before and it still make me laugh :) That being said, that's a long term target I have in my book.

How do you play that move?

i'm long short biased ETF's... and short futures.. with minimal leverage...
 
Quote from Decel:

Is there still a gap below? I'm more willing to short @ 920 than buy @ 880, but will definitely be temped to go long for a small swing @ 880 if we get near there, but will probably play it on the NQ because I'm not a gazillionaire like B1S2 and have a short bias.
There really is no gap to speak of. All of them have already been filled and that's what makes these gap plays so, hmmm, for the lack of better word(s), unceremoniously fucked up.

:cool:

BTW, the next downside target is 878-880. But I ain't so sure it'll stop there. When these trannies bail out en masse, you better look out!
 
Quote from lurefo:

Ilo, what timeframe are you looking at for that range? monthly?

The next 25- 35 calendar days has a high probability (> than 80%) of touching one of those levels. I'm betting on it. :)
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

What about 850 puts and 950 calls ? But taken into consideration VIX development lately, I wouldn´t bet on either outcome...

If you mean VIX continuing to trend lower, then it would be a bad bet to buy. Even if you like to sell options (which I don't), there's not enough juice to compensate the options trader for being short gamma over the next 25-35 day period.
 
The world as it is....

Eurocentric power circles with fading Cold War relationships.

Basically you have your eurocentric systems in place, currency/media/entertainment all oriented towards a lifestyle and methods of behavior and consumption lived and being emulated across the globe.

The eurocentric system consumes most of the world resources per person. The manfacturing base of these eurocentric systems is being eroded away by globalization. The shift in manfacturing overseas, reduces the quality of life of the common eurocentric citizen(america/europe/latin america/south america/australia), while the ruling class in these nations prosper immensely.

The shift in manfacturing escalates the quality of life in relative terms by measures from the eurocentric system. Ones ability to be mobile and be entertained and consume has been first originated and dominated by eurocentrists but is being passed onto our manfacturers. Lifespans for the common citizen have been increased for those nations that participate actively in this system. Our manfacturers are being paid in 'funny money' that looses value each day because of the lack of origination of wealth in the eurocentric nations.

One could argue whether the quality of life has improved for the common chinese citizen or factory worker, who basically has been reduced to a organic robot. Or whether that persons life would have been better in a more agricultural /agrarian setting. To escalate the quality of life of many, the population base has to be reduced in these manfacturing countries. Otherwise you have a very large population base whose quality of life standards cant be met since resource consumption would be huge in absolute terms. The beneficiaries of this system are the ruling class/elitists, who all have a common goal globally that transcends national lines. To preserve and maintain power and influence.

Now why wouldnt the elitists in the old soviet republics cooperate with the elitists in the west, because still there are old cold war era egotistical goals for the globe. The elitists through military/intelligence arms of their nations orchestrate and engineer events to maintain and preserve power. When economic trends and properity is spread to new inductees, if those inductees dont want to play the same ball game, they have to be convinced otherwise a new challenger appears on the world scene. The price of oil has been driving wealth creation in the new inductees, that wealth was being channeled to improve military and intelligence arms in these nations. To stop this the world had to be plunged into a financial abyss to buy time and consolidate power as much as one can.

A prospering Russia was attempting to reconsolidate old relationships and make more egotistical moves in regional/world spheres. What has happened in Georgia was just a small illustration of what could happen on a much larger front in the future.

While wealth is being printed and the consumption of eurocentrists is being subsidized fiscally, that tab is being passed onto to the manufacturers, the unit of wealth becomes less and less, ie (dollar looses value). But ultimately this does not matter since wealth is only secondary to maintaining power by intelligence/military arms of the eurocentrists.

Problem #2: How do you eradicate major populations without disrupting power circles.

- social education... one child policy by China...
- war
- social contagions... HIV
- periodic pandemics

All things you see happening on the African sub continent but on a much smaller scale.
 
Quote from saliva:

There really is no gap to speak of. All of them have already been filled and that's what makes these gap plays so, hmmm, for the lack of better word(s), unceremoniously fucked up.

:cool:

BTW, the next downside target is 878-880. But I ain't so sure it'll stop there. When these trannies bail out en masse, you better look out!
Thanks for the info!

I agree one side (880 - 920/930) has to break at one point, and the upper end have lower and lower highs which reminds me of a descending triangle...
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

to create a artificial demand for treasuries, the government has no choice but to kill the equity market.... the only safe place will be fixed return for a few years.

the immense supply will fuel rates higher if this isnt done. That supply is taken out of the market by asian counterparts.. for our asian counterparts to be continued buyers, a flight out of 'risky instruments' is needed. Take a look at the price of oil and equities they both coincide. Put the world in a massive deflationary spiral and you killl oil, and you kill the modernization of military infrastructure by our old Soviet buddies.

more important then money, its the guns you wield that guarantees security.

why do people continue to insist some sort of government master plan / conspiracy, when in fact it's just market reaction. Did you really think somehow the government caused today's market drop, and not the bond market starting a shitstorm.

Or the oil crashed because of government doing instead of a $150 bubble combined with a recession?

seriously....


ps: i would be very cautious, the bond market/treasury is now in critical path. It could very well trigger the next wave of selling. Tomorrow will be interesting
 
Quote from newguy05:

ps: i would be very cautious, the bond market/treasury is now in critical path. It could very well trigger the next wave of selling. Tomorrow will be interesting
I'm not a big follower of either market, but I believe it would be a great value if those who religiously follow both the bond/FX and oil markets to update (as well as educate) us (and me in particular) from time to time. I'm always intrigued by the intermarket relationship.
 
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