ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
- Start date
- Status
Clue was right there when ADU did not make its 12:30 time swing high higher than day high at the time.
My thought was that it would stop somewhere around PP.
Obviously they wanted to trap as many bulls as possible.
My thought was that it would stop somewhere around PP.
Obviously they wanted to trap as many bulls as possible.
Let me guess, you faded the right shoulder at 890 when I posted before it went 96+ with your 1 point paper trading stop ?
Where to begin. Well, I crunched some more numbers and found tinkering with the daily what I believe is as unbiased approach to drawing and interpreting channels as probably humanly possible.
First the update:
901.98 was the trigger price to cover but the bull is only 1/3 of the way complete -- so I guess you can call this the first leg. From the lowest close at the bottom it's running a pretty tight 45 degree vector. 901.98 is the 135 degree and bears are wanting to find support from the mean of a bull complete move: 863.75. The good news is if you're a perma-bull, the 70s are holding up phenomenally given the perception of bears owning this. I have a measured move from the styles of John Crane, Allen Andrews et al to 70 even by angle and 71 by ledge from a pitchfork. The bad news: We can almost expect fabricated bad news to make a move to the downside look official. They're wanting to kill this thing. But look at all those corners. That leg's almost done. Well it is done by my Elliot count. May 7th they put in the highest contract high but catching stops put the next move as the highest contract close. So there's A & B of the 4th in the first (2nd wave proper).
Friday before close bears tried to put in their first wave above and beyond the call of corrective duty consisting of 5. Bulls reacted. Smart money wants it.
However, session close was 885. The trigger price to 70/71 is 886.50. And 886 as mentioned earlier is a bull minor pivot they've been struggling with.
The move on the open (RTH) determines it.
But keep in mind, if they break south, everything to the upside will be a corrective bounce/headfake to test the bottom there on in. It will mean the bulls 3rd wave failed. And really, when does a bull third wave ever fail?
The next number I have if to the upside is 924.50. Yeah it'ld be close to a triple top, but will confirm the last few bear moves Friday were bear high and tight partials bulls advantage. I have a feeling if we see 924.50 again the only way you could mess up a call or entry is if heaven forbid you're blind. And if you are a blind trader I'ld pay good money to see your rig and even spring for a cup of coffee.
First stop from 24 1/2: 32 3/4.
Second: 998.
270 degree: 1040.
Peak: 1064.
{lines: the high of the highest closing price in a bull to the low of the lowest open (their close) in a bear, the mean of high and low and vector off the mean. The same principle applies to the fork. Hit the corner and respect bias low and high closes}.
I feel this paints a more accurate look of ES as the market truly is:
First the update:
901.98 was the trigger price to cover but the bull is only 1/3 of the way complete -- so I guess you can call this the first leg. From the lowest close at the bottom it's running a pretty tight 45 degree vector. 901.98 is the 135 degree and bears are wanting to find support from the mean of a bull complete move: 863.75. The good news is if you're a perma-bull, the 70s are holding up phenomenally given the perception of bears owning this. I have a measured move from the styles of John Crane, Allen Andrews et al to 70 even by angle and 71 by ledge from a pitchfork. The bad news: We can almost expect fabricated bad news to make a move to the downside look official. They're wanting to kill this thing. But look at all those corners. That leg's almost done. Well it is done by my Elliot count. May 7th they put in the highest contract high but catching stops put the next move as the highest contract close. So there's A & B of the 4th in the first (2nd wave proper).
Friday before close bears tried to put in their first wave above and beyond the call of corrective duty consisting of 5. Bulls reacted. Smart money wants it.
However, session close was 885. The trigger price to 70/71 is 886.50. And 886 as mentioned earlier is a bull minor pivot they've been struggling with.
The move on the open (RTH) determines it.
But keep in mind, if they break south, everything to the upside will be a corrective bounce/headfake to test the bottom there on in. It will mean the bulls 3rd wave failed. And really, when does a bull third wave ever fail?
The next number I have if to the upside is 924.50. Yeah it'ld be close to a triple top, but will confirm the last few bear moves Friday were bear high and tight partials bulls advantage. I have a feeling if we see 924.50 again the only way you could mess up a call or entry is if heaven forbid you're blind. And if you are a blind trader I'ld pay good money to see your rig and even spring for a cup of coffee.
First stop from 24 1/2: 32 3/4.
Second: 998.
270 degree: 1040.
Peak: 1064.
{lines: the high of the highest closing price in a bull to the low of the lowest open (their close) in a bear, the mean of high and low and vector off the mean. The same principle applies to the fork. Hit the corner and respect bias low and high closes}.
I feel this paints a more accurate look of ES as the market truly is:
Some of you glass eaters already know this but I want to help new traders make some money and compete with algo programs. I'm feeling generous this morning.
The bottom, and the mean, were on my chart before the bottom was in. Believe that. And it is a bottom. I'll prove it:
You ready now?
1586.75 square-root: (keep every number save once, and I'll explain when) = 39.83403, multiplied by 180 degrees (symbolic) = 7,170.1254, minus 225 degrees (you're sectoring 1586.75 by half of a circle and then by 60%) = 6,945.1254, divided by 360 (you're finding a ratio to use to further sector the natural harmonic degree the number, I'm not kidding, is ruled by) = 19.292015; what you want to do next is eliminate the whole number keeping in place the decimal rounded to the nearest hundredth = .29, multiplied by 360 = 104.4 degrees. 1586.75 is ruled to the upside or down by 104.4 degrees of infinity. Multiply the degree by 2 = 208.8. Divide that number by 360 degrees to find a ratio equated with sectoring out 360 degrees =.58. The next step is subjective to the trader in that the ratio of 1586.75 means nothing without comparing another angle to it. I want to know where 1586.75 to the downside will complete a full cycle. Do do that take 360 and divide it by 180 = 2. I know what you're thinking. Yes you could have done that from the start with 1586.75, but the steps to redact are important and the ratio isn't as precise as you have to keep dividing by 180 and you don't know where to stop. Then, when you're close, you're too far.
On point: I want to add the whole number to its place in the ratio and keep the decimals intact = 2.58, 2.58 then squared = 6.6564 (665.64). You have the variance of minor swings (multiplied by 3 for swings) and the target price.
Once a range is established you can adjust your pivot play stop to more accurately reflect a bias in closing price from the bounce and then golf!
Traders who sit in front of a screen want to.
Also, we're in a bull market.
tada!
The bottom, and the mean, were on my chart before the bottom was in. Believe that. And it is a bottom. I'll prove it:
You ready now?
1586.75 square-root: (keep every number save once, and I'll explain when) = 39.83403, multiplied by 180 degrees (symbolic) = 7,170.1254, minus 225 degrees (you're sectoring 1586.75 by half of a circle and then by 60%) = 6,945.1254, divided by 360 (you're finding a ratio to use to further sector the natural harmonic degree the number, I'm not kidding, is ruled by) = 19.292015; what you want to do next is eliminate the whole number keeping in place the decimal rounded to the nearest hundredth = .29, multiplied by 360 = 104.4 degrees. 1586.75 is ruled to the upside or down by 104.4 degrees of infinity. Multiply the degree by 2 = 208.8. Divide that number by 360 degrees to find a ratio equated with sectoring out 360 degrees =.58. The next step is subjective to the trader in that the ratio of 1586.75 means nothing without comparing another angle to it. I want to know where 1586.75 to the downside will complete a full cycle. Do do that take 360 and divide it by 180 = 2. I know what you're thinking. Yes you could have done that from the start with 1586.75, but the steps to redact are important and the ratio isn't as precise as you have to keep dividing by 180 and you don't know where to stop. Then, when you're close, you're too far.
On point: I want to add the whole number to its place in the ratio and keep the decimals intact = 2.58, 2.58 then squared = 6.6564 (665.64). You have the variance of minor swings (multiplied by 3 for swings) and the target price.
Once a range is established you can adjust your pivot play stop to more accurately reflect a bias in closing price from the bounce and then golf!
Traders who sit in front of a screen want to.
Also, we're in a bull market.
tada! From time to time worth looking at :
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/cot_historical.html
Take a look at S&P 500 Index COT AND E Mini S&P 500 COT since March 3rd. You´ll find some interesting developments...
and compare it to banks report of futures positions, especially the US banks / non US banks part...
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/bank/deamay09f.htm
Have fun !
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/cot_historical.html
Take a look at S&P 500 Index COT AND E Mini S&P 500 COT since March 3rd. You´ll find some interesting developments...
and compare it to banks report of futures positions, especially the US banks / non US banks part...
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/bank/deamay09f.htm
Have fun !
Quote from volente_00:
Let me guess, you faded the right shoulder at 890 when I posted before it went 96+ with your 1 point paper trading stop ?
NO I didn't even know you posted nor care about anyone who posts 8000+ times. Just think it's funny is all... The only one I pay attention to is TC and can rarely do it during RTH unless market is slow or I lose focus.
Dude, paper trading didn't buy 2 V12 BMW's! Just the gas alone would break you. Got the hood and both fenders buffed, btw. Heading down to the garage to do the roof now, and tomorrow the doors, if my arms hold out. Looking good so far. Any other car guys here?
Hope everyone is having a nice Memorial Day weekend and a break from trading- even you Volente the poster. Imagine if every one of those posts was a trade instead! Let's see, 8000 x 4 pts x ($200)= $1,600,000.
Hey Ken
Is it my fault I have been a member almost 7 years and that I started the largest thread ever in the index futures section in less than 1 year ?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forum...r=1&perpage=20&sortorder=desc&sortfield=views
The majority of my post were in there from posting real time trades. Have fun with your cars.
Is it my fault I have been a member almost 7 years and that I started the largest thread ever in the index futures section in less than 1 year ?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forum...r=1&perpage=20&sortorder=desc&sortfield=views
The majority of my post were in there from posting real time trades. Have fun with your cars.
- Status