ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from stoneface:

The nature of our rallies since the high made @ 886 on 4/30 have been rather strange. The highs are made from short squeezes of grand proportions.

Eventually, when the squeeze is over, ES may very well drop like a rock. But as long as Support keeps Supporting, it seems as tho the shorts are oblidged to make new highs with their buy stops.

We can't make lower low's unless bears are willing to sell thru support. They have been trying, but someone is soaking up the sell orders. It's not for a lack of effort!
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Great post, and a "heads up" to all the Perma-Bulls on the thread (myself included) who have been looking for that support to come in and give them the "win" ... eventually it's gonna give out! :eek:

P.S. Even though it has been holding for some mighty fine gains at the moment. :D
 
Quote from pocketmoney:

Maybe some of you old hands can shed some light.
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I am by no means an "old hand", on this board or in the markets.

But from what I've seen after being a investor/trader for over 20 yrs is that the market is just a mirror of the American business culture.

It goes through periods of boom and bust, where you can see:

a) strongly uptrending makets with very low volatility and years of exanpasion and growth (Bull Markets)
b) followed by periods of consolidation and range bound markets, where you have to eke out small wins (which most people on this board do anyway) to survive. (Neutral Markets)
c) and thirdly are periods of massive volatility, where markets are extremely chaotic and all previous known parameters for defining the market range are broken through (Bear Markets)

The most important thing is to manage your risk throughout all of these environments, and you'll do well.

It's the traders who rely on a short-lived phenomena (tech bubble, inter-market relationships - which are always changing, range bound strategies, or conversely, trending market strategies) that tend to get caught by surprise as the economy changes.
 
Quote from MandelbrotSet:

I am by no means an "old hand", on this board or in the markets.

But from what I've seen after being a investor/trader for over 20 yrs is that the market is just a mirror of the American business culture.

It goes through periods of boom and bust, where you can see:

a) strongly uptrending makets with very low volatility and years of exanpasion and growth (Bull Markets)
b) followed by periods of consolidation and range bound markets, where you have to eke out small wins (which most people on this board do anyway) to survive. (Neutral Markets)
c) and thirdly are periods of massive volatility, where markets are extremely chaotic and all previous known parameters for defining the market range are broken through (Bear Markets)

The most important thing is to manage your risk throughout all of these environments, and you'll do well.

It's the traders who rely on a short-lived phenomena (tech bubble, inter-market relationships - which are always changing, range bound strategies, or conversely, trending market strategies) that tend to get caught by surprise as the economy changes.
More...

Great post.
 
Quote from pocketmoney:

for the successful discretionary / price action traders, is it a case of once you become consistent you should always be so, since your results aren't based on a 'system' which would stop working as the market changes (something ive heard mentioned)

Im by no means successful, but ive had some good results this last few months after years of study and practice, but im constantly paranoid about people who keep saying that the market is always changing and that you have to keep changing your methods!?

Maybe some of you old hands can shed some light.
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Pricing patterns/behaviour do change over any given period ,subject to volatility changes.

The last two days have been consistently frustrating for my counter trend trades....snuffing out my potential large gains on my block trades ,and in some instances experiencing net losses on them after triggering a reasonable profit.

My win: loss ratio was a stinker on Monday so I went to half yesterday and still came a cropper for the day. I will stay at half again today and won't change until I see a marked improvement .

Personally, I am somewhat wary as the price action has been very stable. It is ideal for my block trades, but I'm making an absolute hash of the counter trend trades, but I have to stick with it as it has been my bread and butter for quite awhile.
 
Quote from stoneface:

The nature of our rallies since the high made @ 886 on 4/30 have been rather strange. The highs are made from short squeezes of grand proportions.

Eventually, when the squeeze is over, ES may very well drop like a rock. But as long as Support keeps Supporting, it seems as tho the shorts are oblidged to make new highs with their buy stops.

We can't make lower low's unless bears are willing to sell thru support. They have been trying, but someone is soaking up the sell orders. It's not for a lack of effort!
More...

All you need is over leverage longs meet with one 20+ pts gap down day. That alone can start a drop of 100+ pts. =)
 
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