ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from smilingsynic:

It is highly probable that next Friday's close will be significantly higher than this past Friday's close.

The close of each of the last two days was very close to the bottom of the day's range. Historically, this is significant, and is especially so after a prolonged decline.

I am not going to share details here as to the specific algorithm I have written (sorry), but the results indicated that the potential reward over the next five days is over 7 times (7.33, to be precise) the potential risk. This was based on buying at Friday's close.

This was backtested on the S&P ETF SPY, going all the way back to when it started trading in the early 90's. The differences (and similarities) between the cash-based etf and futures should be duly remembered.

Needless to say, my hedges are going to be lifted overnight Sunday, and a lower open should be considered as a gift.

Note that this is based on the PAST. The future may be different, of course.
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I've made some very good calls here over the years, but this has to be the WORST. Could that smell in the air actually be from this rotting turkey of a prognostication?

Bad call, profitable week--as long as I trade what I see, not what I think, I should be OK.
 
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