ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[volente_00]

Quote from saliva:

I say, at some point tomorrow, we break below the November low (739). I wouldn't exactly rule out the possibility that we close below this number.

I would not bet the bank on that one. Too many put holders will win if this tanks tomorrow. THEY will try their hardest to keep that from happening until after expiration.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from volente_00:

on the first down day, the smart money is selling

on the second down day the semi smart money is selling more

on the third day of the move, the dumb money is puking their long positions and shorting late to the party as the smart money covers


On the fourth day, the dumb money will be forced to cover on the orchestrated spike to distribute more.

Where are we in this cycle ?

 

[startraitor]

Close tomorrow, 823-826. Wishfull thinking, will hold long to close, target or stop under 73 now.

 

[porge]

tomorrow will be another beautiful day...like today...wonderful

 

[womblevader]

Vol

Here is some weekly [data hi lo close] for SP Futures for OPEX week. Formatting sucks but the %age shows you the how much higher the index is than the weeks low.

Its not always dead in the middle but is always somewhere near the middle.

I'm looking for a close of around 800-806.



h l c mid from low %age
16-Jan 888 816 852 852 36 4%
19-Dec 918 857 882 887.5 30.5 3%
21-Nov 882 739 792 810.5 71.5 9%
17-Oct 1062 861 930 961.5 100.5 11%
19-Sep 1283 1134 1245 1208.5 74.5 6%
15-Aug 1314 1274 1299 1294 20 2%

 

[saliva]

Quote from volente_00:

on the first down day, the smart money is selling

on the second down day the semi smart money is selling more

on the third day of the move, the dumb money is puking their long positions and shorting late to the party as the smart money covers


On the fourth day, the dumb money will be forced to cover on the orchestrated spike to distribute more.

That's true to a certain extent, but it's more of an excuse than a hard and fast rule. Moreover, it's when the smart money begins puking the market really gets interesting.

 

[saliva]

Quote from volente_00:

How did you like that T day spanking they gave both of your shorts old friend ?

Hardly a dent on my otherwise beautifully shaped bare ass.

But them trannies did look scary for a moment. I had to call trannie-slayers to come to my rescue.

 

[JSSPMK]

Vol, puting aside OE for a moment what is your opinion on the way the Daily chart looks, as to me it looks just sick, as in not bullish.

 

[startraitor]

For full disclosure getting fully loaded to 773 long. Have not been this commited to a position since election day, should have held that one.

 

[fseitun]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Vol, puting aside OE for a moment what is your opinion on the way the Daily chart looks, as to me it looks just sick, as in not bullish.

Yes, it does look ugly but what do you expect after what we've seen in Oct and Nov?

Those were two brutal months for the markets, and it's gonna take a while before the wound can be healed.

At least right now we aren't dropping like 8-10% at the time like a few months ago, this is already an improvement.

Markets look more stable and normal. The economy sucks and the stimulus plan hasn't convinced anybody yet.

Keep in mind the markets already discounted A LOT during the panic selling of Oct-Nov. Markets are usually 10-12 months ahead of the economy, so I am pretty confident we aren't too far away from "the bottom". The market will let us know when the bottom is in.

The whole picture could change in a matter of a few weeks.

I just analyzed some historical data via SPX monthly chart...I went as far back as the 1929 crash.

All I can say is that we had a similar drop in the early 70s, very very similar drop on similar volatility.

The first bullish monthly candlestick that prints in SPX will signal the bottom IMO. Look back in 1972 - I am not sure the exact year, I don't have my charts open right now - and you will see a nice bullish candlestick that printed and signaled the bottom.

In many other smaller bear markets a bullish monthly candlestick signaled the bottom.

After what happened recently, I think we should be looking at the whole picture from a much larger perspective.

As a daytrader, I could care less of course. However, the day that bullish monthly candlestick prints, I will be all over a retracement and load up on SPY and DIA. It's gonna be a golden opportunity.