ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[lurefo]

Quote from fseitun:

... Like I worked at GS and used to call my buddies over at Merrill and Lehman and we'd set out a bear trap to kill all bears...

And what if that was true.... :eek:

 

[Lawrence Chan]

It not setting a trap per se ...

Classic example,

Big trust fund like stock XYZ wanted to buy 1% of flow. They cannot simply go out and do that. They like stock XYZ at certain price, not higher.

What do they do then if the stock is holding up fine above the price? Call the broker of course.

Then when the stock price gets very close to but not quite at the right level yet, some miracle sell programs would sell into stock XYZ pushing it below the price needed when the sitting purchase order can be executed quietly, in stealth mode.

Once the accumulation is done, normal price action springs the stock back up.

Such transactions happen all the time, across all the stocks, etc.

 

[lurefo]

Quote from fseitun:

I agree that without THEM we'd be better off changing jobs.

Those FOOTPRINTS are critical for successful trading and I agree that T&S is the written proof of such prints as opposed to the DOM where orders can easily be pulled out.

I've been following ES T&S for a few weeks with the hope to make something out of it, yet I still have no clue on how to use it.

I use two separate windows, one showing all contracts and one filtering out contracts of 90 or higher.

I truly believe it's something useful I just need to figure out a smart way to exploit it.

Perhaps I should associate it with volume spikes. Just an idea.

Now you got my attention....

Here is something to start with: price usually goes to size.

 

[fseitun]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

It not setting a trap per se ...

Classic example,

Big trust fund like stock XYZ wanted to buy 1% of flow. They cannot simply go out and do that. They like stock XYZ at certain price, not higher.

What do they do then if the stock is holding up fine above the price? Call the broker of course.

Then when the stock price gets very close to but not quite at the right level yet, some miracle sell programs would sell into stock XYZ pushing it below the price needed when the sitting purchase order can be executed quietly, in stealth mode.

Once the accumulation is done, normal price action springs the stock back up.

Such transactions happen all the time, across all the stocks, etc.

Great example. It's the market maker's job to push price in the direction of the heaviest volume.

However, when we are trending up - like 2002-2007 - or trending now - like right now - it's harder to tell whether the stock is being pushed up and down to satisfy those purposes or because of the natural flow of the trend.

I would say that it's easier to apply these practices when there is a clear consolidated range.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from fseitun:

Great example.

Actually, it was a very bad example. LC was talking about manipulating individual stocks. But the accusation against THEM is that they move the WHOLE market...

Hold on for a sec, I am getting the Memo!

[reading daily briefing from THEM]

Memo says we will hit 806 By Friday's close...

 

[lurefo]

Quote from stoneface:

The recent constrained intra-day range with strong support showing on the break of support @ 800 has me suspicious about a possible Wyckoff Shakeout. The low 800's held as support for ~4 months. I had always suspected it was a zone of accumulation.

Unlike our prior stage of panic selling in late 08, we have signs of strength here instead of total freefall.

It would make for a beautiful 2nd leg of a dragon formation... with the 873 top having nearly broken out of the downtrend line.

Perhaps a shakeout is just what we need to be certain that the sellers are done.

It is just speculation of course.

Markets have unfinished business with these big gaps above their heads.

 

[plumber68]

Getting close if not there by the time I post this to everybody who went and still is short yesterday being on the wrong side.

Clould that cause a big up trend day as they are squeezd or will it just reverse as they are stopped out ? Any ideas.

 

[lurefo]

Quote from Pekelo:

Actually, it was a very bad example. LC was talking about manipulating individual stocks. But the accusation against THEM is that they move the WHOLE market...

Hold on for a sec, I am getting the Memo!

[reading daily briefing from THEM]

Memo says we will hit 806 By Friday's close...

Captain Pek... Have you got that memo about today's low? I would love to know that one to set up a long.

 

[riskymove]

I think everyone and their brother is short or at least in cash. More people than ever thought we were going to break down last week and into early this week so they either were short then or in cash. And volume hasn't been large enough on the big boards (cash stocks - not futures) to indicate much buying or covering. Euro yen about to hit 120 which would be bullish and bonds off a cliff. Couple this with expiration and it could be a huge set up.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from Pekelo:

Actually, it was a very bad example. LC was talking about manipulating individual stocks. But the accusation against THEM is that they move the WHOLE market...

Hold on for a sec, I am getting the Memo!

[reading daily briefing from THEM]

Memo says we will hit 806 By Friday's close...

800-804 area if taken out today with NQ taking out its 1205 level can mean a lot more then just 806.

Well, I did not get my memo ...