ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[SoCalTrader619]

Does anyone have a good link that breaks down the Dragon Pattern? I see it discussed quite often on this board. Thanks!

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Pek,

I spent quite some time on the dragon failure pattern.

The way I can tell that NQ must complete the gap fill today and such before the drop resume should impress you

NQ will be the reason for the dragon pattern to stop working IF it lands a double bottom or higher low.

Very annoying for those who are short ... including me.

 

[riskaddict]

only a matter of time...

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from SoCalTrader619:

Does anyone have a good link that breaks down the Dragon Pattern? I see it discussed quite often on this board. Thanks!

Search for Pek and his dragon ... you will find it.

 

[Pekelo]

I said the failure zone would be around 842-52 and sure enough we failed just below 852, about 40 points from the 2nd bottom. That lower BB looks very invating too:

The only confusing part was the going through the SMA line, but we are back below that again...

 

[volente_00]

Quote from saliva:

ES trading down to 825. Them trannies, I mean T boyz, will be pronounced dead upon arrival tomorrow. FWIW

Them boyz are loading up on the rule of 10 long signal at 824.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from Pekelo:

I said the failure zone would be around 842-52 and sure enough we failed just below 852, about 40 points from the 2nd bottom. That lower BB looks very invating too:

The only confusing part was the going through the SMA line, but we are back below that again...

And if we decide to touch the upper BB first ?

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from volente_00:

And if we decide to touch the upper BB first ?

Then I would say that my super-duper secret Wopi strategy hasn't played out yet, and it is on the sell mode too....

Not to mention this dragon failure has been cooking for a while now:

 

[riskaddict]

Quote from volente_00:

And if we decide to touch the upper BB first ?

I would be out and reversed before it gets close to the upper BB. Anything above the high today screws everything up for the time being. At least that is how how read it.

P.S. Short the dollar!

 

[riskymove]

Wave - great call on the 823.75 today, even if it took a few hours after the close to get there - what's globex for anyway?

We might bounce here but that run up this morning has got to have caught a lot of bulls the wrong way. I think that was evidenced by the fact that the couldn't even get a decent bounce to try to get the dow to 8000 at the close - and you know that's what everyone was watching. It was just weak all the way.

Would seem like one side or the other is going to give soon. The bulls have done a good job defending lately, but they aren't getting any upside traction and if that doesn't happen soon, I think they bail.

NQ was strong on the open, cleared the 1200 resistance nicely but giving it up on the CSCO news which couldn't make anyone feel better.

Good trading all.

 

[Nagelis]

I know you guys mainly looking at price action and technicals, but wanted to share the following with you.
A few lesser known, but very good indicators pointing higher today and causing some concern for bears (like myself)...


1. The Baltic Dry Index started to turn up last few days and had a strong day today: rallied 15 % today... http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$BDI
EDIT: symbol is $BDI

2. Itraxx crossover (Credit Default index) lower as well today and showing negative divergence (got it on bloomberg, couldnt find it on stockcharts) = fear of defaults is decreasing;

3. US Housing Affordability Index (bbg) jumped up massively as well today, after the surprise increase in US Homesales 2 days ago, this is also first sign of bullishness.

Bottom line: something's gotta give pretty soon. We may have seen the temporary low in ES (was it saliva or jahajee referring to that saying end Jan, early Feb?), or else these other indeces have got it wrong and may see a nasty reversal combined with ES breakout to the downside . I remain a cautious bear but may look to buy the dips towards 800/810 with stop 795 ...

Good luck