ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[bronks]

Try again:

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from [Proximo]:

Go Leafs :]

Leafs fan?

 

[[Proximo]]

Sorta kinda (Don't watch too much Hockey anymore)

From Toronto originally.

 

[Pekelo]

The power of simplicity, 15 mins Bollinger bands:

 

[bronks]

Quote from Pekelo:

Failed. Use Tinypic.com and once uploaded, copy the second line (IMG Code for Forums & Message Boards) here, that will work.

For Jmoo, there is actually a Quote button here so you don't need to copy the quotes all the time. Just click on Quote, then respond to the post.

*Pekelo's "How to post in message boards" message was brought to you by the Steelers' Sunday win.

I had to re-name the file...duh.

I will be giving my full in-depth analysis of the upcoming games in chit chat. But a quick summary:

PIT/Cards for the win.

 

[swing-scalper]

It seems that the big hands want to print SPY close at 850. Beautiful !!!

 

[saliva]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

The rally is still driven by very limited # of issues. The tape is painted.

Not a good sign.

For this rally to continue, though, as long as we do not get more shocking bad news will likely do the job ...

The momentum picked up somewhat in the 3 o'clock hour but nowhere near that of yesterday. Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on how you see it, no selloff materialized. One thing is for sure, however. Bears are rearing their beautiful heads again.

BTW don't expect the market to jump out of the window before next Tuesday, the day of the Inauguration.

 

[Jahajee]

Quote from rock34748:

Not beyond the 48/49 range as that would be too close to opening range and options junk for me.

I did load up on UYG for weekend though.

Me too. Bot 3,000 yesterday and 4,500 today

Worse case is the shares go the zero, which is really the end of western civilization, and I lose $3.73 per share. Looking for a minimum 50% in a month or less

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from Pekelo:

The power of simplicity, 15 mins Bollinger bands:

Pek, it is money on the line man!

15-min signals are nice, after the fact. At the heat of the moment, where money is on the line, it is hard for most to act calmly.

It is all money management ...

 

[opt789]

Quote from saliva:

I think they move more or less in tandem. I never understood how they could all move in synch.

But what I really like to know is why ES is trading at a discount?

Are you serious?
In case you are, or others may not be aware, there is a relatively simple arbitrage relationship between ES and the cash SPX. It is a function of just interest rates and dividends. The simple way to look at it is that you could buy all the stocks in the SPX in the correct numbers to mimic the index but that would cost you the interest you would earn by not investing, and on the plus side you would receive dividends. As apposed to the ES which has a much smaller cash requirement but you don’t get the dividends. Therefore the fair value of ES to SPX is interest minus dividends which is all explained here http://www.indexarb.com/fairValueDecomposition.html

With interest rates so low the dividends outweigh them and we are in a period of negative fair value. These calculations are just simple mathematics, there is no information gained bullish or bearish from these numbers.