ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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If ES breaks above 919/922 then there is a high probability of a rally beyond 942.

I don't think ES will move above 920; I think this thing will drop to as low as 800 by next 10 trading days.

However, markets are holding up on hope and expectation rather than solid fundamentals. While I may scalp a few longs - mainly in ETFs - I will be selling all the way to the high in any move up from now to the day The Great One Is Annointed, after which people will realize nothing much has changed and it will be hard slogging for at least 2 quarters.


EDIT: a trader friend says it will go up to 935 or higher today. I disagree, strongly, but...
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Pek, the daily is bullish if and only if we close above your SMA, isn't it? :)
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Yes, that is my definition of trend.

Now since I have been working on my economic Nobel prize, here is Pekelo's theory of news:

Except 1-2 kind of news (One being the fed's rate) most news has no long term effect whatsoever on the markets and they shouldn't be. Test of the theory:

let's say there is a major economic news every day of the week, and they are good, bad, good, bad, good. Now do we really expect longer term investors to change their positions based on each and every one of them, specially when they are contradictory in nature? Of course not.

IMHO, market makers just use the news as an excuse to move the market and most of the time after a few hours the market goes back to its original, intended trend, or it doesn't even follow the indicated trend in the news. How many times do we have bad news followed by a rally? (or the opposite)

Even jobnumbers shouldn't have much long term effect because they are unreliable (they just adjusted the numbers for both Oct and Nov), and because they are only once a month and by the time they come out we already know the pulse of the market/economy...

Edit: Case in point, the euphoria lasted 75 minutes after the not worse than expected jobnumbers.
 
Quote from Jahajee:

If ES breaks above 919/922 then there is a high probability of a rally beyond 942.

I don't ES will move above 920; I think this thing will drop to as low as 800 by next 10 trading days.

However, markets are being held up on hope and expectation rather than solid fundamentals. While I may scalp a few longs - mainly in ETFs - I will be selling all the way to the high in any move up from now to the day The Great One Is Annointed, after which people will realize nothing much has changed and it will be hard slogging for at least 2 quarters.
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There is a concensus out there that the mkt will at least rally to Inauguration.

BUT, there is option expiration weekend right before that happen :)
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Don't underestimate the bulls.

They are willing to play blocking only yesterday to defend the prior day low and wait til the very end to push things a bit higher to trigger the short squeeze ...

May see a replay of that today if 900 is defended again. :confused:
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I think that will come more sooner than later. So far, the bait ain't working. I personally think we'll crack under but, hey, that's just my worthless 2-cents as usual.

FYI The lower channel on the dail stands at 873-ish. Depending on the momentum, should we breach that important level, we could go as low as 853. That's only 50 point drop. No biggie! :D
 
Shut down play in progress as expected. They will need to bring this down to a level bad enough to induce put buying again.

Where? Don't know.
 
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