ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

saliva · Mar 10, 2009

Pek,

It all boils down to one thing: TIMING.

I wouldn't exactly call it poor judgment on his part, but it was indisputably a poor timing. But we're all mighty glad that he could come out with his big fat ass in one piece. (I mean that sincerely.)

iloveoptions · Mar 10, 2009

Quote from Pekelo:

I have pondered for a full minute if I should rain on the parade, but why shouldn't we keep it real? This is constructive criticism, so take it as such:

A congratulation is in order for your determination and stamina staying in the position for so long. Now let's do the math:

Before you took this position your ES trading results since November were somewhere around -100 points. This profit of 178 point made it to +78 points, although I realize it was on 30 ctrs instead of the usual 20.

Thus in the last 4 months you made about 100+ points adjusted to 20 ctrs. Since you are underleveraged that means only app. 1% was made in 4 months by trading ES.

So here is what I learnt from you:

1. It pays off big being in the market for extended periods, assuming you are with the trend.

2. If you don't risk much, you don't make much.

The truth is that #2 kind of undercuts #1. You successfully captured a 20% drop, but you only made 2% out of it...

Ouch! The truth can hurt sometimes. But as you said, he deserves a blue ribbon for holding a 20% move for several months.

Bigpipn · Mar 10, 2009

Quote from saliva:

Sorry, but I'm gonna poo-poo your claim. We could be going right back down to 690 or lower tomorrow.

Yes, I agree that you'll likely have your trannies to play with on Thursday, if you're into that stuff.

I'd love to see us trade to 690 or lower to run some stops.

The average daily range has been ~25 handles and after this big move you'd expect to have a contraction in range.

saliva · Mar 10, 2009

Quote from swing-scalper:

I think HOD has not been made. We haven't seen this kind of strong uptrend for a long time.

My target for HOD: a) 718-720; b) 724.

Let's see how the market plays out.

Well, first all, ya can't have 2 HOD's. So which one is it? Be that as it may, I am mindful of 724 as the possible target should we break out above 715.

startraitor · Mar 10, 2009

I think they game it up the shorts ass as far as they can before options next week. Need some more well timed news to assist.

Gettin long in here 09-11 for the afternoon push.

[Proximo] · Mar 10, 2009

Odds are that the HOD is not in. Doesn't mean that we can't retrace 10-15 points from here.

I'm short since 1105.00. Tops like this take some time. I plan on covering @ 1195 --> 1190-91.

Sideways for the next two hours and then make new highs in the last hour. That's my guess.

edit: Needs to go down here or we'll make another push up. Stop @ BE-4 (ticks) ATM.

saliva · Mar 10, 2009

Quote from Bigpipn:

I'd love to see us trade to 690 or lower to run some stops.

The average daily range has been ~25 handles and after this big move you'd expect to have a contraction in range.

Well, who has the patience to be greedy when they know their profit will only gradually erode, especially in this environment when the downside outweighs upside potential? I'm pretty damn sure the profit-taking will be in order for tomorrow. But don't you worry. Vol and his gang of trannies will be back before ya know it.

saliva · Mar 10, 2009

Quote from [Proximo]:

Odds are that the HOD is not in. Doesn't mean that we can't retrace 10-15 points from here.

HOD means just that. It is the HIGH of the day. That also means ya can't get any higher that that. You can go as low as you want and even retrace all the way back up and close right at HOD. But ya can't go any higher. As such, we might close at 715.50 but not one tick higher.

So sez my crystal ball.

[Proximo] · Mar 10, 2009

Market can go anywhere it wants.

Just because you have some stupid trend line there doesn't mean it can't go above it.

Quote from saliva:

HOD means just that. It is the HIGH of the day. That also means ya can't get any higher that that. You can go as low as you want and retrace all the way back up and close right at HOD. But ya can't go any higher. As such, we might even close at 715.50 but we ain't going any higher.

Bigpipn · Mar 10, 2009

First off, Heed to B1S2. You held through a very bumpy market. I must admit that I do believe that you held this trade not because of R:R or any other trading-related reason but because you wanted to be right.

Thanks to Pek for the #s to put the trade into perspective.