ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from JSSPMK:

Sal, if I were you I wouldn't try & tell others that fibs don't work, I recall Apex82 demonstarting usage of confluence of signals that included fibs superbly day after day. ImPO a better approach is to say 'I haven't managed to find its usefulness' along the lines of me saying I haven't managed to find usefulness of implementing rocket science to measuring daily projections of blah blah blah etc. :)

What works for some, doesn't necessarily work for others, unless it has been proven not to work at all.
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Okay, if you say so. :D

But by your own admission, fibs work "superbly" only when there is a confluence with other indicators. What that sounds like is that the fibs by themselves aren't really all that useful as they're made out to be. In another word, they're, ahem, useless. Sure, I could also align the fibs to S/R and TL and still be able to spit out those damn numbers down to the tick, but how much is that from the fibs (and not S/R or TL)?

But, really, day after day? I find that hard to believe. I would have to see it to believe it. Anyway, all I'm saying is that I find the fibs as just another overblown hype that extends beyond its usefulness. That doesn't mean that I'm telling you not to use it. After all, isn't that up to you to decide?
 
Quote from saliva:

Okay, if you say so. :D

But by your own admission, fibs work "superbly" only when there is a confluence with other indicators. What that sounds like is that the fibs by themselves aren't really all that useful as they're made out to be. In another word, they're, ahem, useless. Sure, I could also align the fibs to S/R and TL and still be able to spit out those damn numbers down to the tick, but how much is that from the fibs (and not S/R or TL)?

But, really, day after day? I find that hard to believe. I would have to see it to believe it. Anyway, all I'm saying is that I find the fibs as just another overblown hype that extends beyond its usefulness. That doesn't mean that I'm telling you not to use it. After all, isn't that up to you to decide?
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Noted :)

Confluence is of major importance ImPO, just like a confluence of opinions of say yours, SS, startraitor, ammo, Buy1Sell2, etc. :D
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

Noted :)

Confluence is of major importance ImPO, just like a confluence of opinions of say yours, SS, startraitor, ammo, Buy1Sell2, etc. :D
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I hope I didn't rub this up the wrong way.

As far as confluence goes, I too am a big fan of confluence. But to blindly think that the price will reverse at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels is ludicrous. They're arbitrary at best. Sometimes they work; sometime they don't. In my mind, only time when it does work is because the fib happens to align with either S/R or TL and not because of its own innate magical power.

Also, even when they do work, they only come within the ball park and never down to the tick. So if the 61.8% indicates that the price should stop and reverse at 16.5 but it actually comes down to 14, most people would discount that as "close enough". Well, that mere 2.5 points that you missed might become a huge number should this be repeated day in and day out.

Moreover, my biggest bone of contention is this. I want something that is tangible, namely, to be able to see clearly without any lingering doubt. For example, S/R or TL is very clear as to where prices will touch. With the fibs, this is like hanky-panky.

Anyway, these are my own bland thoughts and should not be construed as implying that you shouldn't use the damn thing as you see fit.
 
Quote from saliva:

I hope I didn't rub this up the wrong way.

As far as confluence goes, I too am a big fan of confluence. But to blindly think that the price will reverse at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels is ludicrous. They're arbitrary at best. Sometimes they work; sometime they don't. In my mind, only time when it does work is because the fib happens to align with either S/R or TL and not because of its own innate magical power.

Also, even when they do work, they only come within the ball park and never down to the tick. So if the 61.8% indicates that the price should stop and reverse at 16.5 but it actually comes down to 14, most people would discount that as "close enough". Well, that mere 2.5 points that you missed might become a huge number should this be repeated day in and day out.

Moreover, my biggest bone of contention is this. I want something that is tangible, namely, to be able to see clearly without any lingering doubt. For example, S/R or TL is very clear as to where prices will touch. With the fibs, this is like hanky-panky.

Anyway, these are my own bland thoughts and should not be construed as implying that you shouldn't use the damn thing as you see fit.
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No worries mate. Good post.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

P.S.: Dragon failure on Friday projects a 3rd bottom at 714 cash...
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Overnight low 711.25 (the equivalent of 714 cash) reached and bounced. Currently 716...

Dragon rules!!!

(chart posted in the dragon thread)
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Overnight low 711.25 (the equivalent of 714 cash) reached and bounced. Currently 716...

Dragon rules!!!

(chart posted in the dragon thread)
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Good so far.
But Pek, this thing has to go lower. Next support at 690 SPX
 
Sure it could, the pattern has played out and has ended with a 10+ pts bounce from the 3rd bottom. Again, the pattern doesn't say if it is going to be a small 3-5-10 pts bounce or the end of the downtrend.

Although consider this:

Quote from AMT4SWA on Friday:

I have next ES target at 722.50 as mentioned before and I now just set my final ES target for 712.50.....
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