ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from Lawrence Chan:

So the obvious target is 912-13 then :)
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I think they will try to rally this to the close ... an ADU day

BUT, I am extremely bearish, more and more bearish as it goes higher.
It is very difficult but I have to restrain myself from buying XLF and QQQQ February puts... looking at the 5m and hourly XLF and QQQQ charts as they rally and VIX swooning , now at 37.85.

Anyone else bearish?

We are now in the SPX 915/920 zone; if it can break above 925 then it can rally to 975 in a day or two.
 
Quote from Jahajee:

Anyone else bearish?
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What's wrong with you people? Didn't I gave you the long term buy signal 2 days ago? Chances of 2 signals failing back to back is pretty low....
 
Quote from Pekelo:

What's wrong with you people? Didn't I gave you the long term buy signal 2 days ago? Chances of 2 signals failing back to back is pretty low....
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I know! Even I'm seeing an ADU! :mad: :( :mad:

I'm still expecting a healthy retracement before 2pm, but evidently, will close this position soon if that unicorn doesn't appear...

Edit: Evidently old habits die hard in my case...
 
lot of people got caught up here at 917 -18 in mid dec,we should see sellers coming in,uvol dvol chart is a classic adu though
 
Quote from Pekelo:

What's wrong with you people? Didn't I gave you the long term buy signal 2 days ago? Chances of 2 signals failing back to back is pretty low....
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Yeah, but... how 'long' is long term?
a few days? weeks? MONTHS???

I attribute the 2 signals back to back days to the low range during those lohgt volume days, thus not as strong a signal as in normal trading environment. A big down day will again turn to another short signal --- a big up day after turn it up.... as you know the MACD tends to flatline in low range days (or intra bars) and tend to cross over above and below to much.
 
Quote from Jahajee:

Yeah, but... how 'long' is long term?
a few days? weeks? MONTHS???

I attribute the 2 signals back to back days to the low range during those light volume days, thus not as strong a signal as in normal trading environment. A big down day will again turn to another short signal --- a big up day after that wil turn it up again.... as you know the MACD tends to flatline in low range days (or intra bars) and tend to cross over above and below too much.
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Quote from ammo:

lot of people got caught up here at 917 -18 in mid dec,we should see sellers coming in,uvol dvol chart is a classic adu though
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Today is not normal ADU. So far external forces is at work.

e.g. beginning of year mutual funds buying, etc.

You do not get $TICK bounce up from +200 whole morning that often.
 
Quote from Jahajee:

Yeah, but... how 'long' is long term?
a few days? weeks? MONTHS???
More...

On average 3-4 weeks. It is actually very rare to have 2 signals this close to each other and no, one big up or down day won't change the signal.

Also, as LC noted above, not every rally day is an ADU. ADU refers to a particular kind of day, when the day advances according to a certain timeline. Now today we might have a 1 hour delayed ADU, have to keep an eye on it...
 
Quote from ammo:

lot of people got caught up here at 917 -18 in mid dec,we should see sellers coming in,uvol dvol chart is a classic adu though
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Agree, also T-bond is at support level. But in no hurry to short this market, if we belive 500 we have lots of rooms. Not a good place to go long also, retace to 880 would be better.

Today's close should be watched closely, imho.
 
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