ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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mar of 09 fed was buying and announced some 6 months into the rally that the banks had been buying equities, stretched the rally a few more months,, this time around they preanounced and we rallied from 1040 to 1150, guesses don't count, but it's possible they preannounced hoping to get part or most of the rally thru rumors,manipulate the sentiment,without major printing because they are running low on ink
On a mission to destroy bears? What's up with the last week then? ES closes are flat, YM and NQ closes have been cooling off.
The dollar has been sinking for the last month, but no consumer inflationary pressures are evident yet... that means producers have been eating any increased commodity costs... that scenario can't go on forever. Either the dollar rallies, driving ES lower or dollar stays at the same levels / sinks more. If the dollar keeps sinking, then it's possible we get more rally, but we still have to deal with the impact of the recent dollar dive.
We are going to get quarterly reports this month... It's too late to change the impact from the dollar in this reporting session... This quarter, I think manufacturers are going to project decreased revenues due to increases in commodity costs. That could easily send ES lower for a little while... making some bears happy.
Quote from JSSPMK:
There is no chance in hell to get SPX to 950 unless NDX gets below its 200 weekly SMA, no chance TommyLong time buddy.
Hey there JSS
Well, you don't have to agree with me that we're headed to 950... that's largely based on levels and waves... but just looking solely at your favorite indicator (MACD) on the daily timeframe, don't you think it says we're rolling over?
Quote from tommymoose:
Hey there JSS
Well, you don't have to agree with me that we're headed to 950... that's largely based on levels and waves... but just looking solely at your favorite indicator (MACD) on the daily timeframe, don't you think it says we're rolling over?
For sure, but is it a sign of a pullback or a reversal? Weekly suggests it ought to be a pullback, unless markets faked the breakout. Another point one has to consider is that if FED add another $1t of liquidity it will be "good" for most things - equities & commodities.
My channels analyse tells me:
1. 950 will need major trend change. I am not betting on major changed.
2. We are on top of current trading channel. Break it up is highly unlikely. All my trades will be short, long position are too risky.
3. i bet that something similar to 1080 (bottom of current trading channel) we wil see relatively quickly
Note. It is uptrend channel, so we can slowly crawl up kissing the top trend line, but not forever.
1. 950 will need major trend change. I am not betting on major changed.
2. We are on top of current trading channel. Break it up is highly unlikely. All my trades will be short, long position are too risky.
3. i bet that something similar to 1080 (bottom of current trading channel) we wil see relatively quickly
Note. It is uptrend channel, so we can slowly crawl up kissing the top trend line, but not forever.
Short 1143.75. Sill "invincible armada" call hedge in place. Playing this game for 4th of 5th time ...
Good analysis. I agree, the bottom of the trading channel is a higher probability target, and I'll be covering half of my short at that level. I guess where some of us differ in thought is that while these signals (MACD rollover, top of channel, etc) point to a pull back, I suspect that they're the catalyst to something more significant than just a pull back. For me, this is a prime example of analysis of several timeframes, and using the smallest ones for entry. Time will tell!
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