ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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What messed me up on the trade, was I had confirmation of going long or market turning bullish on higher time frames, but should have waited to actually go long for a setup when the lower time / volume frame gave me some kind of signal. Instead the lower frame was overbought, and it would have been better to wait for it to become oversold even if price decided to continue going up without me. Or as noted, to get in around recent range support not around breakout unless the lower frame also confirms after or around breakout price since that would have been enough confirmations. For example, with 3 confirmations indicating a real breakout, then even buying at higher price is fine.

Its funny, also anyone who bought the real break or added there would have made more money, and if I had set my stop at BE, I could have held the last contract longer.

Quote from Thundershock:

Here's something I'll tell you that might help you in the future. (I usually only reserve this kind of detailed info for my subscribers but here it goes) The reason why I thought it might pop earlier this afternoon was because if you notice, when the price was going down, it was hugging the 10 bar moving average on the 15 minute chart with the highs on each bar penetrating the m.a. This coming after a recent drop and the macd histogram having just risen is a good sign that a snapback rally is waiting to happen. You don't see this signal happen very often but when it does, it can provide for big moves.
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Quote from candles:

Wow. Another strong upday.
Natural upside bias of the ES is quite amazing.
Go airwaves Go! lol

(Also T-day for you trannies tomorrow!)
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Barring panic and really bad news, the tendency for this market is to go up because there isn't anywhere to park money for a decent ROI right now. So any news that's good or even less bad will be an upside catalyst until the market becomes "worried" again which should happen soon based on the fact that major resistance is nearby and the range of these up days is getting narrower.

A break through that resistance zone would be interesting.

Recently, CL (which I trade) will rise for any reason at all such as pipeline leaks, China, hurricane season, crude inventories up, crude inventories down, and JPM issuing a sell recommendation. I bet that if I contacted the oil trading desk at a major investment bank and told them my car had an oil leak, the thing would run 50 ticks in 3 minutes :p

It's starting to look a bit toppy, though, and Goldman's saying $85-$95 again and we all saw what a dump it took last time they said that.
 
Quote from ammo:

thanks LC, theres a ledge at 1900 and your close is a nip ,wheres your gap fill above
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First upside gap filled today for ES.

Was not in the office nor at the computer whole day.
 
Quote from candles:

Wow. Another strong upday.
Natural upside bias of the ES is quite amazing.
Go airwaves Go! lol

(Also T-day for you trannies tomorrow!)
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If tomorrow futures are beaten down and we open down 2% red and then we reverse hard but still close red, the crap is still attributed to T-day. In other words any upside tomorrow regardless or green or red will be attributed to that stupid useless rule.

Why don't you people wake up or better yet grow up and just trade price.

All here mentioning T day and supporting it are just showing your true colors, colors of a beginner. Want to progress ? Don't believe in fairy tales, especially in the market.
 
Across the pond a rally in FTSE is now widely expected to go +10% into New Year. Hello Santa ;)

In the US Buffett & Co say there won't be a second dip.
 
Ladies and gentlemen, for your viewing pleasure, announcing the T-day Challenge!:

Quote from Nexen:

In other words any upside tomorrow regardless or green or red will be attributed to that stupid useless rule.
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I kind of agree, although acknowledging that there is a statistically valid positive expectation for T days being green.

But let's make it interesting! Let's announce the T-day challenge!
To put this idea either to rest or into the Trading Strategies Hall of Fame I challenge anybody to post at least 5 trades based ONLY on the T-day expectation. (now of course we don't really know what your trade is based on, so we will just take your word.)

The trades have to have a real time entry, and a stop loss. A target is not that important although nice.Also we want a real time exit. Here is the best part! It doesn't need to be a real money trade, but it has to be in real time! (we can't check it anyway) It is your timing what we want to see, not your account...

Now since the idea of T-day is a signifficant move upward on T-days, I would say in today's market I want to see at least a 5 pts moves captured on T-days meaning RTH, so don't exit after 2-3 points, that is not what T-days are about...

Let's put a timeframe on the challenge, so we can announce the results by Halloween, I say 4 weeks (8 T-days) should give enough opportunities for capturing at least 4 such a move, I mean if they exist, of course....

So any takers??? T-day fans??? 5 easy trades, that's all we ask for... :)
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Ladies and gentlemen, for your viewing pleasure, announcing the T-day Challenge!:

Now since the idea of T-day is a signifficant move upward on T-days, I would say in today's market I want to see at least a 5 pts moves captured on T-days meaning RTH, so don't exit after 2-3 points, that is not what T-days are about...

So any takers??? T-day fans??? 5 easy trades, that's all we ask for... :)
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Wait, wait, wait...

5 pts in a single trade ("don't exit after 2-3 pts") or "5 easy trades"?

Do we have to trade to the long side?

I mean, like, if the retail sales news really sucks do we have to wait till DEMTDAYBOYZ return from the pub end of day and join them for the last minute short covering move to net a qualified 5 pts?

:D
 
Quote from Pekelo:


Now since the idea of T-day is a signifficant move upward on T-days, I would say in today's market I want to see at least a 5 pts moves captured on T-days meaning RTH, so don't exit after 2-3 points, that is not what T-days are about...
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Define significant.


All TDAY THEORY states is if the market is down on a tuesday or thursday, there is an 80% chance that sometime intraday it will revert back to green. I have never stated the market has to close green nor does there need to be a significant move upward above breakeven.


Feel free to backtest it intraday.


Yea I am sure it will have a positive expectancy considering we have enterted the worst 2 months historically for longs and have had an 80 point run up.


You will get your chance to buy cheap tomorrow when dec is trading under 1107
 
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