ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from Nagelis:

yen is dropping because of the japanese fiscal year end repatriation trade.. hence the decoupling whioch i mentioned yesterday... market is positioning for this repatriation but if it doesn't take place, an allmighty yen squeeze will be next..
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I dont care why the yen is dropping - except that it is. And it just made another low - and it is historical correlated with fear. Just as gold is. And what is gold doing today?
 
Quote from riskymove:

I dont care why the yen is dropping - except that it is. And it just made another low - and it is historical correlated with fear. Just as gold is. And what is gold doing today?
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that's right, no disrespect. i'm only saying it to prove a point that trading SnP off the yen and vice versa is pointless... if you'd played the correlation now, you'd been burried.
 
Quote from Nagelis:

that's right, no disrespect. i'm only saying it to prove a point that trading SnP off the yen and vice versa is pointless... if you'd played the correlation now, you'd been burried.
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It's called a head-fake, as we're seeing now. Why would you trade ES based on Yen in the first place?

And if ES and Yen both move in tandem (correlation), there's no forecasting value in that--or is there?
 
Quote from saliva:

It's called a head-fake, as we're seeing now. Why would you trade ES based on Yen in the first place--as if Yen frontruns ES?
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a head fake that lasts for days... too painfull in daytrading to sit on it.

saying it, because yen comes up often in this thread (riskymove, LC, et al). ive been trading ccies for years. trying to learn about ES from you guys now :)
 
Quote from Nagelis:

that's right, no disrespect. i'm only saying it to prove a point that trading SnP off the yen and vice versa is pointless... if you'd played the correlation now, you'd been burried.
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No disrespect here either.

I dont trade the SPX off the yen, however I do watch a lot of intra-markets for clues as to where the SPX could go. I think the yen breakdown is bullish - and I would also note that (for now) they euro yen is starting to rally, which also has been somewhat bullish for stocks. I concede the equity market looks like a big piece of poo - just trying to see if we are at a stage where we could get a turn and some upside given the prevailing sentiment. And I am trying to look for clues in other markets to tell me when/if that moment will occur.
 
Quote from riskymove:

And I am trying to look for clues in other markets to tell me when/if that moment will occur.
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My personal view is that all financial skidrows lead to S&P. :)
 
Tight range day yesterday and we have range breakout to the down side.

Today opening range breakout downside.

Double range breakout to the downside.

Not likely we have seen the low of the day yet.

Edit: Maybe, there would be an exception if T-Day boyz think that today is Tuesday :D
 
Quote from riskymove:

No disrespect here either.

I dont trade the SPX off the yen, however I do watch a lot of intra-markets for clues as to where the SPX could go. I think the yen breakdown is bullish - and I would also note that (for now) they euro yen is starting to rally, which also has been somewhat bullish for stocks. I concede the equity market looks like a big piece of poo - just trying to see if we are at a stage where we could get a turn and some upside given the prevailing sentiment. And I am trying to look for clues in other markets to tell me when/if that moment will occur.
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fully agree, i watch yen too, but i even used to play the correlation which always worked well untill recently. For pure SnP direction, i watch the Itraxx (mentioned it before), baltic dry, but thats more for a medium term view and as a guide for my bias and a core position.

but i do like pure price action and technicals being brought forward here for daytrades. i hope to participate in posting my trades here soon as well to reciprocate.
 
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