ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from petty1978:

Ok, as a guide this is now a valid short set-up with todays low of 1055.50 as the minimum downside target.

Confirmation of this: when looking at the current ES 16:30pm est 30m bar, price needs to rise (as of now) to a minimum of 1103.50 to initiate this downside target...each 30m bar from this bar that passes, the upside target that needs breeched increases by 1 tick. So the ES 17:00 pm est upside will be 1103.75 and so on...

Price still has upside but when this is breeched, all it is saying that lower prices are in order.
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Regarding my ES outside bar technique that I have been talking about:

Today's price has to breech the upside now between 1111.75 -1114 depending on the time it chooses to do so to initiate this guide as valid. If it does not do so today then the level just continues to rise in 1 tick increments every 30 minutes. Once this breech occurs it is signaling lower prices are inevitable and start taking positions to the down side. Obviously if you trade intra-day and not large swings this isn't for you. But it is nice to know where price is going, not just that 'it's gonna drop".
 
Quote from petty1978:

Regarding my ES outside bar technique that I have been talking about:

Today's price has to breech the upside now between 1111.75 -1114 depending on the time it chooses to do so to initiate this guide as valid. If it does not do so today then the level just continues to rise in 1 tick increments every 30 minutes. Once this breech occurs it is signaling lower prices are inevitable and start taking positions to the down side. Obviously if you trade intra-day and not large swings this isn't for you. But it is nice to know where price is going, not just that 'it's gonna drop".
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The overnight session already missed this upside breech by 1 tick so we will see how this plays out...
 

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Quote from petty1978:

I'm not guessing Austin. Back test it for the QM/CL and then we can share back-tests openly in this forum.
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I'm guessing Austin does not back test :eek:
 
Quote from jjf:

my weekend reading.
Many thanks
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what I was getting at is the idea of the probability of an uptick vs downtick, computers do this much better and faster than humans do. Someone else could explain this better than me. There is a book called "All About Derivatives" by Michael Durbin, chaper ten option pricing. The book is light reading compared to some of the tomes I have tried to wade through. Good trading.
 
the high should be at the close if gs is directing this play,this is an assumption,not a prediction, could go either way,just leaning on end of month bias
 
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