ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from NoDoji:

I'm finding, too, that the volatility requires far more focus. Look away to read a piece of news or check what's going on in this thread and miss an entry or a good chunk of a move.
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I cut my trading teeth in the wild years of 2000 ~ 2002 and enjoyed the replay during 2007 ~ 2008. Volatility and violence in the tapes are no stranger to me... I'm actually most comfortable trading wild markets.

If I had to say something seems different this time around, I guess it's the speed at which price stabs sideways. The ES in particular used to slim-jim coil and ledge much more than it does now. Instead of stair-stepping up or down, it pounds higher or lower with a lot of deep-v pullbacks.

That, and much more trappy - springs type of action. I see a lot more fakeout reversals than ever before. Or at least I think I see more... maybe it's just more noticeable to me these days.

I'd opine there are a lot more springs or traps due to the various bots tripping one another. They can't all cascade like dominos. Some of those bots have to be written as mean-reversion models that will fade a move if it does x,y and z in systematic language. Those type of counter-move trades would be the springs and traps overshoots that negate coiling and ledging.

So it's not really the speed at which things unfold... it is the speed at which price will reverse, hard. That's what I find tough to keep up with. But we've got our answers for that. Cannot keep us out of the winners circle for long :)
 
Quote from austinp:

I'd opine there are a lot more springs or traps due to the various bots tripping one another. They can't all cascade like dominos. Some of those bots have to be written as mean-reversion models that will fade a move if it does x,y and z in systematic language. Those type of counter-move trades would be the springs and traps overshoots that negate coiling and ledging.

So it's not really the speed at which things unfold... it is the speed at which price will reverse, hard. That's what I find tough to keep up with. But we've got our answers for that. Cannot keep us out of the winners circle for long :)
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If I'm not mistaken, what you're saying aligns with my own way of thinking. Not all bots are created equal. Just as there are dumb money (99% of us, I'm told), there must be jackass bots.

The question is then how can we differentiate between a smart bot and a dumb bot?
 
Quote from austinp:

I'd opine there are a lot more springs or traps due to the various bots tripping one another. They can't all cascade like dominos. Some of those bots have to be written as mean-reversion models that will fade a move if it does x,y and z in systematic language. Those type of counter-move trades would be the springs and traps overshoots that negate coiling and ledging.

So it's not really the speed at which things unfold... it is the speed at which price will reverse, hard. That's what I find tough to keep up with. But we've got our answers for that. Cannot keep us out of the winners circle for long :)
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That was my exact thought today while trading today. I sat on my trades, patiently allowing them to run, and watched them reverse on me. One reversal was at a point where I was about to tighten up my stop for either taking profits or catching the final thrust of the move. The final thrust never happened and before I could take profits, it was retracing halfway back to my entry, so I figured what the heck, why take a small profit, when it might head right back to my target. I figured HFT bots were reacting to levels in various short time frames and my big picture would play out. More often it does and patience pays off; sometimes it doesn't. The key is to take all valid setups, not pick and choose. I'm still picking and choosing too much.

It's a market where you have to be very proactive at times, ready to pull the trigger without hesitation, have your buy stop or sell stop in place in advance, because the wild swings will shake you out if you wait for too much confirmation.
 
Quote from volente_00:

DEMTDAYBOYZ are on fire


:eek:
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So what do you have for tomorrow's target? 1100 by chance? I would be feeling damn rich if that were to happen. :D
 
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