spx closing below 1170....not good.
ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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If it is to happen, then the highest probability will be within the next 13 trading days.
It's not possible for you to average down... since you haven't had a losing trade in over 6 months.
Quote from NoDoji:
Not true! I've not only had losing trades, but also had entire losing days, one as recently as 4/29 for -$40 (I keep the losers small)
Me too. I once lost $12.50 in February of 2008 but I've been making thousands of dollars every day since then.
Average winning trade in 2010 is $900. Avg losing trade in 2010 is N/A.
That is very cool. I reached a point early this year after some moments of overtrading insanity where I realized that the less I traded, the better my trades, because when I was very patient and waited for the best setups, they worked. I spent months manually backtesting bar-by-bar with stops and targets until I came up with setups that worked 90% of the time (by "worked" I mean setups that allowed me to exit the trade at break even or better, they don't all hit target, but a lot of them do). I actually still do this for about an hour every night, move charts to the hard right edge, uncover one bar at a time and choose setups with entries, stops and targets.
All the best to you for 2010!
Only time to add-on to a loser in ES is when the price action did not prove your intended breakout to immediately show a profit.
If the trade stalls immediately after a breakout you have to assume the holders of the other side are in stronger hands, no one else in interested in raising their bid/ask at this price which means no follow through, all the other traders are asleep or taking a whiz.
OK, price dips small and bounces around from back to even and back to small loss. BEST trade always will be to just lunch the trade. When dancing and partner keeps stepping on your new shoes...........bug out and wait for a new partner.
If price then drops a bit and still bouncing around in new small range, then you can double up with the intention (SOLID INTENTION) to get back 1/2 the ticks to get out at even, minus commissions.
PS: Nod, you FOUND the answer when you honored TA, price action, instead of fighting it. It does get easier when you trade comfy. keep up the good work. In the longer run, you will make more money by concentrating on ES and just use CL to power your car. Work on one item like ES and just add cars as you progress..............ES is better in long run. CL is like an adventure more than a solid trading instrument for a retail trader. have fun ..
Any other use of averaging down is suicide by hanging oneself. Admit it, the trade sucks, you were wrong pal...........reach back and pull the ripcord and get some fresh air. Land on your feet and look for a new opportunity.
Once you get 1/2 the losing amount back, be true to yourself and chuck the trade fast.
You must have a good read on the action to do this correctly.
If the trade stalls immediately after a breakout you have to assume the holders of the other side are in stronger hands, no one else in interested in raising their bid/ask at this price which means no follow through, all the other traders are asleep or taking a whiz.
OK, price dips small and bounces around from back to even and back to small loss. BEST trade always will be to just lunch the trade. When dancing and partner keeps stepping on your new shoes...........bug out and wait for a new partner.
If price then drops a bit and still bouncing around in new small range, then you can double up with the intention (SOLID INTENTION) to get back 1/2 the ticks to get out at even, minus commissions.
PS: Nod, you FOUND the answer when you honored TA, price action, instead of fighting it. It does get easier when you trade comfy. keep up the good work. In the longer run, you will make more money by concentrating on ES and just use CL to power your car. Work on one item like ES and just add cars as you progress..............ES is better in long run. CL is like an adventure more than a solid trading instrument for a retail trader. have fun ..
Any other use of averaging down is suicide by hanging oneself. Admit it, the trade sucks, you were wrong pal...........reach back and pull the ripcord and get some fresh air. Land on your feet and look for a new opportunity.
Once you get 1/2 the losing amount back, be true to yourself and chuck the trade fast.
You must have a good read on the action to do this correctly.
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