The Technical Take: Stock Indices Erase Early Losses
The stock indices maintained the negative bias created during the previous day's downside reversal in early action Thursday with overseas pressure and weak employment data (Initial Claims 626 K vs. consensus 580 K) adding to the bearish tone. However, for the second time this week the S&P tested and held near trendline support off the Nov-Jan lows (at 820 Thursday, session low 819.91) and bounced. The rebound was broad based but Financials (XLF +1.4%, Broker +3.5%, Insurance +2%) provided important leadership amid some positive calls from the Street and chatter that the mark-to-market rules could be modified. The indices did set new session highs during the afternoon but trade was choppy after the run into midday and ahead of the key jobs data tomorrow.
Market Averages
The sizeable recovery rally is encouraging but the market has had difficulty putting together follow through moves in either direction over the last few weeks leaving a narrowing trading range to develop. Thursday/Wednesday highs (850/851), which lined up with the trendline off the Jan highs is the initial level to watch on the upside in both post employment trade and then on a close basis tomorrow. Resistance above is in the 858/860 area in front of congestion and its 50 day sma in the 868/870 zone. Short term supports are at 837/836 and 831/830 in front of the Nov-Jan trendline (822 Friday) and Thursday's low at 819.