I've noticed its easier to get shaken out recently as well. Most of my trades are based on overbought/sold conditions on an oscillator setting I came up with, and I'm finding I'll get a signal, but price will usually make one last stab before going where I expect. I usually take my trades with a 2-3 point stop thats right past the pivot, so I've been getting hurt. I've tried to adapt by using a larger stop and not putting my second 1/2 on until one of these shakeouts occur. Its the inconsistency of the market thats challenging though. Sometimes I end up with only 1/2 a position on and not able to scale out how I like to. Overall I'd say I'm being much more selective in my trades... if it means letting some winners go, thats fine.
ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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IMHO the smart money is simply squeezing out the weak shorts.
but eventually we will trade lower, as the smart money looks for a higher entry level to go short themselves. everything points to a major move lower.
for instance: not sure anyone looks at the Itraxx Crossover (Credit default index), well it's at a new all time high, higher than at last's year's spx crash. it's a very good indicator for general direction.
so in my view SPX is clearly lagging and building up energy for a catch up move lower.
I play it via scaling into SDS at present levels.
but eventually we will trade lower, as the smart money looks for a higher entry level to go short themselves. everything points to a major move lower.
for instance: not sure anyone looks at the Itraxx Crossover (Credit default index), well it's at a new all time high, higher than at last's year's spx crash. it's a very good indicator for general direction.
so in my view SPX is clearly lagging and building up energy for a catch up move lower.
I play it via scaling into SDS at present levels.
My thinking was right...
There's a real disconnect between the RTH crew and the AH crew. All this week, I've had much success shorting the market in the AH. For example, I took a short position at the end of yesterday, which I covered at 803.50 (I'm mighty proud of myself might I add
). Needless to say, however, I gave back nearly half of that tidy fortune when everything is said and done.I hear ya, I'm in the same boat.
The other point worth mentioning about RTH and AH: it s the europeans pushing it lower 3 times, and the americans buying the dips with success every time with almost no pullbacks. the RTH traders (americans, smart money) want to push it lower on their own terms, when they are ready for it.
Smart money is looking for the pain trade of the weaker players, i.e. the weakest resistance, which is clearly to squeeze the weaker shorts out of their position in RTH.
FWIW. it's a bit of behavioural analysis. but I value the technical input of you guys here enormously.
NQ? buy @ market open 8:30 cst for me and vol............sell 1:30 ...what??? 2 runs again today ........apex to apex on the 30 min chart...15 min chart....if these are too slow for you then you are scalping or do not know how to read charts yet..candles are almost as friendly as trends.
yeah, until the market shows me something to draw me back.
I'm looking to get one of these and store it in Miami and do the Miami to Key West run, when in town.
http://www.lamborghinilongisland.com/
http://www.lamborghinilongisland.com/inventory/printDetails.cfm?printdetails=4378175
I'll be back in the market when the volatility returns.
Chris
Hey,
Go to Europe and give it a try there. Absolutely no speed limit for many cross-country routes in the EE region.
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