Quote from frugi:
Volatility often increases at turning points.
To ensure a dramatic move down, shorts need to be forced out first. Only if nobody wants to cover can we freefall.
A breakout above highs, especially on NQ, would trigger all manner of stops, but I feel we have travelled up too far, too fast.
I think we'll soon see a topsy-turvy move up to 1023-27 followed by a plunge. Either a tweezer top (one mighty ADU, one ADD over two days) or a one day caret (inverted V).
Option expiry should be around 100 SPY next week to suck dry the cornucopia of put/call buyers where the OI is concentrated.
For the record, I am short (an equal number of) Aug SPY 100 calls and long SPY 102 calls as of today's close @ 2.40/1.13. I don't know what else to do, this is a weird market.
If we hit 1030 before/on Wednesday I will do the same with 103/105s. I intend to hold till just before Fri 21 close. Both decisions may prove unwise. There is always the danger of assignment, too, of course.
PS Aware I made a terrible call earlier on this thread, but fwiw this is my first "official" trade. B1S2 has strict but fair criteria and I will ensure honest reporting of these. It's fun to be back in the game with a full time job elsewhere to allow me the luxury of hobby trading. Always enjoyed this thread, now dipping in properly.
