ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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One thing that makes me not comfortable with a combined breadth model in dealing will the current mkt condition is something like today.
Nasdaq is clearly weak across all its underlyings and sell off by close is pretty predictable.
BUT, betting on that to transfer some down side pressure into ES is not functional for the past 2 months. We've seen many more days that they do not move together lately. i.e. one up big, the other goes south, etc.
my take is the fed,treasury are doing all they can to boost the economy,that 3 month rally was the tarp loan, borrowers bought the market, instead of lending, sold at the top, reaped a profit,then gave the tarp loan back, now if they want to buy it again with their own money, we will have to be much lower... this is pure conjecture but a possible scenario
Hey, I threatened with the ex-lax and tasers. They'll never take me.
And I don't mind pushing those blue hairs down the stairs either.
RenTec´s factor model is also "irritated"...
I have noticed the same thing on a slightly different level. Every instance over the past three months when it appears the market is getting set to fall apart one key sector gets a huge bid - be it tech, energy or financials. Yesterday it was tech - today it was financials - maybe tomorrow it's energy. But its a rotation over and over that keeps the breakdown from occurring.
I don't know how much longer it can last but it seems like the current bid is losing steam. They aren't getting as much punch for their all day buying mojo at the end of the day as they used to. Sooner or later someone has to bail. Is is going to be the longs or the shorts? That I don't know - but I am betting on the shorts. The fundies are on their side. The monthly chart looks like a giant relief rally that could be tapped out. And the massive amount of treasury auctions next week could be just the spark to zap this.
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