ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from volente_00:

Shame on you


:(
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Must be the holidays breaking my concentration. Also, I didn't see your usual "T-Day Crew" post! :confused: :p

I can't believe how much of a fool I was:
-The people's opinions I take into account were all bullish.
-The charts I followed turned bullish
-I saw an ISH
-I sensed an ADU

Yet I kept trying to short the heck out of the market! It's my loss and I truly hope I will learn from it, but I make no promises...

I think it was due to mostly paying attention to the NQ and thinking that it was ahead of itself and would retrace.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

SS, from what you mentioned, you just started using VWAP.

You already figured out the most important usage of VWAP on ES ... cool :p

For the last part, it is not just often, but "must" land on VWAP because many bots on stocks must close out their shorts at or below VWAP after averaging up to their necks :D
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Yes, I looked into it after reading about it in a few places (including your work). It's the only indicator on my screen (I don't consider floor trader pivots as "indicators" per se).

For a long time I was sure that indicators had zero value. Obviously, I am sure now that I was wrong. VWAP is like a floor trader pivot--a "self-fulfilling prophecy.

Your explanation makes sense. I have gone back months on some stocks and indices, and sometimes the moves start at 3:58 on stocks and etfs (like XLF).
 
Quote from riskaddict:

Is tommorrow a half day? Either way oil will be down 2 or 3 bucks and S&P will try to get back over 900 and fail!
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Can I pat my own back at least for the oil call? Any oil traders here?
 
Quote from Decel:

Must be the holidays breaking my concentration. Also, I didn't see your usual "T-Day Crew" post! :confused: :p

I can't believe how much of a fool I was:
-The people's opinions I take into account were all bullish.
-The charts I followed turned bullish
-I saw an ISH
-I sensed an ADU

Yet I kept trying to short the heck out of the market! It's my loss and I truly hope I will learn from it, but I make no promises...

I think it was due to mostly paying attention to the NQ and thinking that it was ahead of itself and would retrace.
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Safe to to say there is an intermediate rally here. I have not bought it either and have been losing the whole time. With the slower volume/volatility it is easy to overtrade. When you break it down you can only be short flat or long. I am still short here. Good trading.
 
Not too sure about that King. So far we're above (or the top end) of the opening range

Also, I keep seeing huge lots hitting the ask on the booktrader (only started staring at it this morning). I'm talking about 100+ lots slamming the ask vs retail hitting the bid.

Edit: aren't we printing a bull flag on the 5min?

Edit2: Spoke too soon...
 
Quote from riskaddict:

is this what VWAP is supposed to look like? It looks like it is always crossing. What are you looking for just a touch and then a continuation it the move?
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For the ES, I set it to 405 for the 1 minute (basically, because of 405 minutes in the trading day). If one used 3 minute bars, then set it to 135 (405/3).
 
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