ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
Quote from Lawrence Chan:
After having a nice dinner with my family, and having some good wine at the moment, feel like repeating this important concept that has been repeatedly told by Pek, SS, etc.
1. The opening range became the high of the day after an hour
2. We clearly have opening range breakout down side
3. gap direction is out of the way (filled, etc.)
4. lunch time never retrace more than 1/3 (my added rule)
You have potentially a good trend down day if you have 3 out of the 4 requirements above.
The catch is that if there is no new low printed after 2:00 pm ET, a reversal can happen. If a new low is printed after 2 pm, then selling into the pullback will likely get you a new low print after 3:00 pm.
All that ends by 3:30 pm, as a strong melt down or a strong come back is equally likely.
Trend up day is almost an exact opposite.
With proper money management, trading potential trend days alone is good enough money for many.
Excellent Professor.
Good vino helps, my preference being a robust, hearty shiraz or merlot.
As for market during these last days of a year to remember, I think the path of least resistance is down, real hard down. If not, I will wait for the rally and short heavily all the way to end of January, target being SPX 700 or lower.
This is an old, old post that I brought back, just to add what Lawrence Chan. Pekelo, and others have noted.
Made one trade this morning, and then went to the zoo with the family. Saw neither bulls nor bears there.
Question is: what didn't I see? I was actually short the ES early on, and was short (twice) the YM after the open on current highs.
The problem is that my stops were "within the noise" like B1 says all the time, because I also have an issue with terminating my losers.
I now have this tendency to place a stop 1 increment below my entry to *secure* a minimal gain (actually, avoid a loss). But the damn market fetches the stop once or twice before running in the direction I want it to.
Every once in a while though it will whiplash and run against my call, and in the past I was *deer staring at the headlights* while the loss just keeps coming in.
Nice controlled and mild trend days I can read the action pretty good, but after getting clobbered -Killed!- in Oct-Nov vertical trends, I am now more fearful than ever.
I feel like an addict that needs coke to live, but has to fight off the potential overdose...
Edit: thanks for all your replies, I'll try to identify trend days with those guidelines. Took me 3 months to be able to make out an ADU/SDD before a day is actually over though... all in the process of learning.
Have upside target of 890 and strong pull at 888. Will be looking for longs on dips into today's action or breakout of afternoon. Mid to low 60's would present good entries if approached on low downside momentum.
While energy and equities have decoupled somewhat as of late, I suspect the end to the downside will develop in the light holiday volume just as the upside ended over the 4th of July week. I do not expect quite as spetatular rebound, but a reversion to the meaty part of the mean is in order.
A look at the SPX:
Major gap at 1099.52 (make it 1100)
Major swing low at 740.33 (make it 740)
1100-740= 360
360/2= 180
740 +180= 920. Recent swing high on SPX is 918.73.
If we are in an uptrend that will continue throughout early next year (that has been my thesis), 920 area might well end up being the halfway point to 1100.
1100 by May, and then sell and go away?
Major gap at 1099.52 (make it 1100)
Major swing low at 740.33 (make it 740)
1100-740= 360
360/2= 180
740 +180= 920. Recent swing high on SPX is 918.73.
If we are in an uptrend that will continue throughout early next year (that has been my thesis), 920 area might well end up being the halfway point to 1100.
1100 by May, and then sell and go away?
- Status