ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

Status
Not open for further replies.
2 rules about Fed day/week:

1. The Monday before the Fed Tuesday is usually sideways. Although yesterday we closed in the red, but this morning we were back where we started (880), so in a 24 hour cycle it was sideways. (Dow was only down by 65 points.)

2. Usually the Tuesday is slow on a Fed day. BUT, if there is a trend (like today) then after the big fluctuation immediatelly after the announcement, the trend usually resumes...

Example: Sept 16th:

dmaej9.png


The uptrend before 2:15 is obvious, and although the fluctuation was wild, it resumed...
 
There is a very interesting difference this time for the Fed result on interest rate decisions as there is only 1.0% left to cut.

Assuming stock market is a forward looking mechanism, then

1. Cut 0.0% with 1.0% left - No cut, not good.
2. Cut 0.25% with 0.75% left - Small cut, not good.
3. Cut 0.5% with 0.5% left - Maybe, leaving something there for next time.
4. Cut 0.75% with 0.25% left - Better, but not enough for next time.
5. Cut 1.0% with 0.0% left - Gamble on a single cut.

No matter what, there is nothing left to cut "next time". :)

Edit: Revised the table about with comments :D
 
Quote from Pekelo:

2 rules about Fed day/week:

1. The Monday before the Fed Tuesday is usually sideways. Although yesterday we closed in the red, but this morning we were back where we started (880), so in a 24 hour cycle it was sideways. (Dow was only down by 65 points.)

2. Usually the Tuesday is slow on a Fed day. BUT, if there is a trend (like today) then after the big fluctuation immediatelly after the announcement, the trend usually resumes...

Example: Sept 16th:

dmaej9.png


The uptrend before 2:15 is obvious, and although the fluctuation was wild, it resumed...
More...


I'll throw in a couple of other observations.


The tuesday is usually green on fed day going into the announcement. Check the history.


The market usually ends the opposite on fed day than how it ended on the previous day.

Keep in mind that previous close was 868 on cash so there is still a lot of air underneath that can get filled on the whipsaw.



850 - 920 is still the range for the week.
 
I just got the Memo from the Feds. It says the gapclose at 870 is a given right after the announcement, 860 is a possibility. That point it is a huge buy and we rally back and above 890.

This October it was similar with different numbers with an extra last 15 minutes 45 points sell off, just to screw everybody...
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

There is a very interesting difference this time for the Fed result on interest rate decisions as there is only 1.0% left to cut.

Assuming stock market is a forward looking mechanism, then

1. Cut 0.25% with 0.75% left.
2. Cut 0.5% with 0.5% left.
3. Cut 0.75% with 0.25% left.
4. Cut 1.0% with 0.0% left.

No matter what, there is nothing left to cut "next time". :)
More...


EMRGLOBAL



Deflationary pressures will put a "heavy" hand on the markets. I doubt, IMHO, that we are going to see a Huge Bear Rally. In fact, 09 could see more selling pushing the INDU below 7000.

Rates cut to zero will signal more panic. Fed is out of bullets. We should get a serious deflationary 3 or 4 quarters before Inflation picks up.

No way out guys, Depression probably not but serious deflation that may feel like a Short Run Depression, 99%.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

I just got the Memo from the Feds. It says the gapclose at 870 is a given right after the announcement, 860 is a possibility. That point it is a huge buy and we rally back and above 890.

This October it was similar with different numbers with an extra last 15 minutes 45 points sell off, just to screw everybody...
More...



We a probing previous support on cash that is now acting as resistance. If we break it I expect failure around 894.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=5d


The only problem I see is they could run 894 to blow stops before the gap fill.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top