ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from startraitor:

adding long here at 881 and setting much bigger stop, below 872, could test 96-900
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I def think we are going down in the next hour but by end of day i think star has it again.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

You expect we sell off from here (or a bit higher) then?

My take -

For the record, the diamond formation on ES and SPX daily is now completed. It spans over more than 2 months, pointing to continuation. Meaning very sharp sell off from this level (likely) upto 910 area (less likely).

The drop will last about a month (1/2 the diamond duration) to 2.

p.s. That is also the reason why I care about the uptrend line on daily so much ... it has to hold to break out of the diamond formation, which in turn break the daily down trend.
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Since there is some correlation in the markets, check out the Asx chart, Bear flag or spike and ledge reversal?
3400 was 50% of the high.


2:15 FOMC
 

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Read your ASX chart.

Spike and ledge needs multiple bounce to the ledge (top in your chart) ... it is not tested, so we do not know if it is one, right?

Breakout play is much easier in this case.

For ES, it is much harder to trade the breakout because of its wild swings lately. Breakout of 820-910 range can be exhaustion already. :(
 
What is this pattern called when we have a top around 10 am then it sells into 11 am*, then rallies up to a higher high just right after noon? I forgot its name....

*Timing it by Williams was excellent
 
Quote from Pekelo:

What is this pattern called when we have a top around 10 am then it sells into 11 am*, then rallies up to a higher high just right after noon? I forgot its name....

*Timing it by Williams was excellent
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I believe it has an A and a D and a U in it?

but not sure and defer to the more knowledgeable.


HOWEVER: I cannot envisage what the FED can do that will
result in a sustainable rally today. I expect "buy the rumor sell the fact" action. So, they are buying the rumor now and will sell after 2:30 pm

There just isn't any earnings potential for stocks to rise. But, stocks can rally based on false hopes etc. Such rallies are transient events that soon give way to sharp declines.

Yeah, I am bearish. Getting more so every day.


As is the case with FED day, I don't trade until the decision. The guys at Trading markets call it SLIM JIM. The market goes into Slim Jim mode where all indicators and averages and channels and trendlines converge into a very narrow band, ready to break out after the announcement. I must say today is a little more active than normal FED days. So, we may have a fatter SLIM JIM. I would like VIX to drop to 50 before I sell short and buy UYG or XLF puts. It is now 55.81, down 0.95
 
does look like an adu 'cept the dvol keeps creeping up, i think they may have large bids at 78/79 holding it up to short, uvol/dvol started out up 7/2 now 4/1
 
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