ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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On the subject, I think indexed etf's have taken the role of the tail wagging the dog. Most of the mutual fund late trading scandals of the early 2000's took place in international funds. Buying international funds after a strong us market and selling them the next day with a wink and a nod from funds with policies against market timing. Foreign indexed etfs provide a vehicle to participate and position in oversea's markets off regular trading hours and vice-versa. The decoupling of the us leading began in earnest in early 07 and has smoothed ever since. On the flip, the leveraged etfs have added another twist to volitility all together, unintended consequenses, good for traders, bad for long term sentiment under these conditions.


Quote from saliva:

Clarification please.

ES mirrors the European markets step by step, although I don't know which is the real copycat. So why isn't ES moving in lockstep with the Asian markets? You don't need me to tell ya that ES trades in a snailass pace during this time. What the hell is this, a double-standard?
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Hi,
I guess two questions,

1, Is the play to close tha gap at 880 still valid ?

2, somebody mentioned a gap up for today (Tuesday) then short, what if tomorrow gaps up, still short ?

Thanks, even though I trade the YM still learning so much from you guys, thank you.
 
Quote from volente_00:

Because the other world indices are partly influenced by the previous days action in the US. There could be a variety of reasons, maybe some news event in the other countries, etc. I don't follow the correlation to asia.
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Yes, I'm fully aware of that. Both Asian and European markets shadow the US market. But that doesn't answer my question. Why is there a direct correlation between ES and FTSE (or ES and DAX for that matter), but not between ES and Nikkei 225?

ES sits idle from 16:15 EST to 23:00 EST when the Asian makets are in full swing but when the European markets open at 24:00 EST, not only the damn thing comes to life but, worst, trades exactly identical to FTSE and DAX. They ALL trade the "bleeping" same way. I swear I could trade ES just by looking at DAX, and vice versa. To top it all off, I find it laughable to see that both FTSE and DAX trades in the afterhours exactly the way ES trades in RTH. Doesn't that seem PATHETIC?!!
 
Quote from plumber68:

1, Is the play to close tha gap at 880 still valid ?
2, somebody mentioned a gap up for today (Tuesday) then short, what if tomorrow gaps up, still short ?
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2 good questions and one answers the other one.

1. According to the general theory of gapclosings yes, but according to the special theory, not necesserily. Let me elaborate.
I give good points for the market for effort. That means that a gap doesn't always need to close a gap 100%, if it was a big gap and most of it got closed, we can view it as closed. Now this gap was pretty decent, and only 6 or so points left of it, so it is a judgement call.

2. This answer depends on how you view the gap. If you think it got pretty much closed, then the 2nd gap rule doesn't apply, otherwise it does.

As I mentioned earlier I still think we will touch down to 880 or below, but it would be very FUNNY, if we didn't, but took off and rallied like hell. :)
 
Quote from saliva:

Yes, I'm fully aware of that. Both Asian and European markets shadow the US market. But that doesn't answer my question. Why is there a direct correlation between ES and FTSE (or ES and DAX for that matter), but not between ES and Nikkei 225?

ES sits idle from 16:15 EST to 23:00 EST when the Asian makets are in full swing but when the European markets open at 24:00 EST, not only the damn thing comes to life but, worst, trades exactly identical to FTSE and DAX. They ALL trade the "bleeping" same way. I swear I could trade ES just by looking at DAX, and vice versa. To top it all off, I find it laughable to see that both FTSE and DAX trades in the afterhours exactly the way ES trades in RTH. Doesn't that seem PATHETIC?!!
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Hint

What happened in japan around 1990 that it is stilll effecting it today ?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^FTSE#symbol=^FTSE;range=1y
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Tommymoose also has 880-65 as resistance...
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I meant support. This market just doesn't want to go down, we are back above 900 again... :)

That trend change at 3 am and 6 am works pretty well, but who is up in those ungodly hours???
 
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