ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Thanks, was looking at the 16 pt swings from 900 and 84 looked like it was going to hold that range for the time.
Here is what I expect for the next 2 weeks:
I am showing it on a chart with 5 mins candles, but I am talking about daily candles, this is just for illustrative purposes and there are no scales to avoid confusion.
So we are where the dot is, just bounced back from the upper Bollinger Band. (in actual we are closer to the SMA but again, this is just for illustration) We are going down to fill the gap at 880 and probably to overshot it a little, but the SMA will provide resistance ( around 870) and we shouldn't close below it. If we close below it, then this scenario is void!
After 1-2 days the rally will resume, and at this time we will go through the BB much higher, probably the 970 area, where we stall. From there we fall back and go rangebound for the rest of the year, maybe with a little rally in the last few days:
For comparison, here is the SPX daily, the same area circled:
I noticed, that although patterns repeat on the different timeframes, it might take 1 candle on the daily what takes 2 candles on the 5 mins chart. So basicly the upper chart's 2 red candles are the equivalent of today's red candle...
I am showing it on a chart with 5 mins candles, but I am talking about daily candles, this is just for illustrative purposes and there are no scales to avoid confusion.
So we are where the dot is, just bounced back from the upper Bollinger Band. (in actual we are closer to the SMA but again, this is just for illustration) We are going down to fill the gap at 880 and probably to overshot it a little, but the SMA will provide resistance ( around 870) and we shouldn't close below it. If we close below it, then this scenario is void!
After 1-2 days the rally will resume, and at this time we will go through the BB much higher, probably the 970 area, where we stall. From there we fall back and go rangebound for the rest of the year, maybe with a little rally in the last few days:
For comparison, here is the SPX daily, the same area circled:
I noticed, that although patterns repeat on the different timeframes, it might take 1 candle on the daily what takes 2 candles on the 5 mins chart. So basicly the upper chart's 2 red candles are the equivalent of today's red candle...
Pek,
Your 5-min chart illustrated the point and the reason I do not agree with you.
The left side penetration of the lower BB was not in scale to the one we see on the daily.
From my experience, the one we got on daily indicates trend sell mode started and that at least a test of that low or slightly lower is needed before any significant bounce will be seen.
The turning point, would be, right here. Today and tomorrow will shape the next move.
I was fully expecting 886 to break ... at second try. So you know how I feel ...
On the other hand, I have learned long time ago to not argue with the chart
Your 5-min chart illustrated the point and the reason I do not agree with you.
The left side penetration of the lower BB was not in scale to the one we see on the daily.
From my experience, the one we got on daily indicates trend sell mode started and that at least a test of that low or slightly lower is needed before any significant bounce will be seen.
The turning point, would be, right here. Today and tomorrow will shape the next move.
I was fully expecting 886 to break ... at second try. So you know how I feel ...
On the other hand, I have learned long time ago to not argue with the chart
LC, you normally wouldn't see a manic selloff at inflection points, which by definition is the pinnacle of a given rally. Tomorrow, on the other hand, will be a make or break day.
In response to Pek, I could personally give a thousand and one reasons (on and off the charts) why this market will tank
In response to Pek, I could personally give a thousand and one reasons (on and off the charts) why this market will tank
I think we have to view the decline today as normal consolidation in an uptrend, and this will be so unless SPX goes below that 860-865 zone of support.
Note that SPX was rejected twice at the 920 level. We could be in this 860 to 920 zone for another day or two then break out - up or down?
Note that SPX was rejected twice at the 920 level. We could be in this 860 to 920 zone for another day or two then break out - up or down?
Clarification please.
ES mirrors the European markets step by step, although I don't know which is the real copycat. So why isn't ES moving in lockstep with the Asian markets? You don't need me to tell ya that ES trades in a snailass pace during this time. What the hell is this, a double-standard?
ES mirrors the European markets step by step, although I don't know which is the real copycat. So why isn't ES moving in lockstep with the Asian markets? You don't need me to tell ya that ES trades in a snailass pace during this time. What the hell is this, a double-standard?
Because the other world indices are partly influenced by the previous days action in the US. There could be a variety of reasons, maybe some news event in the other countries, etc. I don't follow the correlation to asia.
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