ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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I never got a chance to post this up on Friday. This is what I'm seeing in terms of resistance on the S&P.

As you can see, we're in the meat of the first resistance zone 911-927 SPX. After that its 970. Then the final zone that I'll be done scaling out of my longs and getting short at for the long-term is 1040-1070 SPX. Not as important, but for an estimate, it could be sometime in mid-January.
 

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Quote from tommymoose:

I never got a chance to post this up on Friday. This is what I'm seeing in terms of resistance on the S&P.

As you can see, we're in the meat of the first resistance zone 911-927 SPX. After that its 970. Then the final zone that I'll be done scaling out of my longs and getting short at for the long-term is 1040-1070 SPX. Not as important, but for an estimate, it could be sometime in mid-January.
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Interesting.

It's almost a month to mid-January, which makes me wonder about the possible path you have in mind:
Do you expect the market to retrace - and if so, how much - during this up move to 1040-1070 SPX?

I make my living off the shorter moves in these longer term trends, hence my curiousity.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Well, thank you everyone, I do it for the applause and for the kids, not for the money. :cool:

Anyway, as I mentioned earlier today was a delayed ADU, going 1 hour behind the usual timeline. Once you figure out the delay (you push the real top backward to the 10 am line), you just adjust the time and play it accordingly. There was a danger of melting down /gapclose once the descending triangle broke down at 13:30, but it quickly recovered. After that you just had to stay long until the usual topping time of 15:30-45. Kind of interesting that this part went by the normal timeline.

For the week, I was actually wrong about the upper BB on the daily chart. The 918-920 level was correct, that was the same level we bounced back mid-November, the dragon failure point, from where I counted my 920-160=760 as a low prediction. But the upper BB is actually higher, around 945 right now. BBs keep moving according to the market's movement, and when I try to project a few days in advance I have to guesstimate.

Anyhow, I don't expect the market to run away from this giant gap, at 880, so I say we close it by Wendesday's close before/if we go higher. The SMA line should provide resistance, currently around 870. (but expected to move higher)

It is possible tomorrow we get a sideways consolidation day as it is usual after a big rally (plus it is a T day) and we only go down to close the gap on Wendesday.

P.S.: If futures go into the green overnight, it should be shorted because of the 2nd gap rule...
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Great stuff. Uncanny accuracy, over a period of time, in both bullish and bearish cases. I will never go against your analysis, again. You considering doing some consultancy services?
 
Quote from Jahajee:

Interesting.

It's almost a month to mid-January, which makes me wonder about the possible path you have in mind:
Do you expect the market to retrace - and if so, how much - during this up move to 1040-1070 SPX?

I make my living off the shorter moves in these longer term trends, hence my curiousity.
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All the money I make is in trading the futures for the shorter moves too... I just do the long-term trade thing with small size in ETF's for fun/practice for when I have a large enough account for it to matter.

Anyway, the price action changes my opinion of the smaller structure of a move constantly. A potential route I see is this...

that was a pretty strong reversal off the 920 area and I expect it to retrace at least to the 38% before breaking through
 

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Quote from Jahajee:

You considering doing some consultancy services?
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Well, I do it here for free, but B1S2 just doesn't want to listen...

Quote from tommymoose:

As you can see, we're in the meat of the first resistance zone 911-927 SPX. After that its 970. Then the final zone that I'll be done scaling out of my longs and getting short at for the long-term is 1040-1070 SPX. Not as important, but for an estimate, it could be sometime in mid-January.
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Pretty much that is how I see it. The hope for change will keep the uptrend alive until the inaguruation...
 
Quote from Pekelo: Pretty much that is how I see it. The hope for change will keep the uptrend alive until the inaguruation... [/B]
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So no re-visiting the low 800s? With the daily ranges the ES is doing nowadays 1000 is barely 2-3 days away...
 
Quote from ammo:

holding shorts for 895- 96 print,will trim down to a 2 lot
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missed 96 fill,lowereing to 92,small supp line at 90,monday is bar nite,goin to bed, 905 stop
 
Quote from Pekelo:

P.S.: If futures go into the green overnight, it should be shorted because of the 2nd gap rule...
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Worked... :)

Hm, March futures are below the December ones....
 
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