There could be another interpretation to your daily chart
As the channel bottom was breached a lot more than usual, a new down trend could be established. And that all break below or test from below the SMA should be regarded as continuation sell signal.
Edit: so the key question is that if there is some criteria (% below, etc.) to determine if a continuation is more probable.
And what is your ball saying about 20 EMA and SMA on daily very closely above us, during veeeeeeeeery long time when we cross it immediately are falling like drunken sailor.