ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from dmartin:

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

11-25-08 08:38 AM

11-24-08 07:07 AM

11-20-08 08:31 AM

Short one contract at 795.00

Initial stop 1075.00
Maintaining the stop here at 1075.00
Maintaining the stop here at 1075.00
Adding an additional 19 at 869.75 with the stop also at 1075.00
Total of 20 units short.
--Stop remains at 1075.00--I will be keeping this position small at 20 contracts due to the fact that I sold into an oversold market and must keep my stop outside of the noise. There could be quite a bit of noise with the bullish divergence on daily. The weekly and monthly remain strongly down.--
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Can you explain this manner of trading? Many of you think I'm hard on Buy1Sell2 but this seems just plain silly. His first trade represented a potential loss of $14,000 for 1 contract which would represent $700,000 TNW--assuming your stated money managagement plan taking no more risk than 2% of TNW. Now you make a trade of 19 contracts with a potential loss of $10,262 per contract or $194,978 if you were stopped out on all the contracts. What's interesting is this later trade now represents a TNW of $9,748,900. So what happened to your formula of risking no more than 2% of TNW? In reading many of your past post you made it very very clear that one should NEVER risk more than 2% of TNW. Is there anyone out there who can figure out his method of trading because obviously he is not going to answer me.

DMartin
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I like the guy. I'm not saying anything against the person. The post you reference, however, makes absolutely no sense to me, hence I wrote and asked for clarification. I was sure that I misread the stop. From my limited 14 years of off and on futures trading, I've collected thousands of dollars worth of books and have read almost every issue of the various Futures/Stock trading magazines. I've never read anything like it regarding a stop.

The other thing that makes no sense is the risk:reward. If the stop is roughly 280 points away then the target one can surmise is at least 280 points away. But why risk that for a 1:1 reward? So let's say the target is 560 points away, i.e. 2:1. OK, that's better but ah, well, let's just say we will all have a lot of things on our mind at that time, i.e. 560 point continued loss on the S&P.

The more I write this down the more foolish I feel. Is that the intent of all of this? Seeing who is paying attention?
 
If one goes to the bordello but doesn't care if he gets laid or not, why should he go to the bordello at all?

Oh, but I already said this.... :)
 
go back and read the first 100 pages of this journal or more and you will begin to understand his logic,he has methods that work in certain markets,mostly trend trades that stay with the trend for a long time and reap large rewards, and in other markets ,he tries different things, he's constantly learning as i hope we all are
 
Quote from Pekelo:

If one goes to the bordello but doesn't care if he gets laid or not, why should he go to the bordello at all?

Oh, but I already said this.... :)
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Don't know if this is applicable but I get a SALON newsletter with this subject line:

Today in Salon: I Like to Watch
Sunday, November 30, 2008 1:24 AM
From: "Salon Newsletter" <newsletters@salon.com>
 
I am going to quote someone from another thread, because I completely agree with him and that's what I have posted 10 days or so ago, when I said we would bounce from 760-80 and that would be the low of the year....Next year's low, that is a different animal, we are still here in 2008:

Quote from Wayne Gibbous:

You are going to have to wait until next year for your next big downage IMO. You are forgetting what drives the world economy - the Foolish American Consumer (FAC).

Here's the way I see it, for the rest of the year and a month or so after, we go mostly up. Even after all this financial horror, the FAC will want to spend again. For a while anyway. Holiday optimism and hope that 'Bama can fix things with new spendy policies, will send us higher. Desperate fund managers will jump on hugely, but they will all bail at the first sign that things aren't getting better. Next year.

The FAC is a crazy animal. Even near bankruptcy, given just the tiniest bit of hope they will spend spend spend. The numbers will start to show up...and bam, up we go for a few months.
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I also mentioned earlier the fund managers, who are going to see the market getting away from their fund's performance, and this is not the year to underperform the market. To perform equally bad with the market is one thing, to underperform it in a bad year is unforgivable...

Now if I have to give a maximum for this rally ending probably mid-January (or around the inaguruation) I would say 780+(780/2)= 1170 a 50% runup at most.
780ish being the 50% drop from all time high...

Here is the thread, good discussion about longer term directions:

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=146441&perpage=20&pagenumber=1
 
Quote from Pekelo:

If one goes to the bordello but doesn't care if he gets laid or not, why should he go to the bordello at all?

Oh, but I already said this.... :)
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Unless you think you're the only pimp in town, not to mention too many ugly whores running the freaking show. :eek:
 
Quote from Pekelo:

I am going to quote someone from another thread, because I completely agree with him and that's what I have posted 10 days or so ago, when I said we would bounce from 760-80 and that would be the low of the year....Next year's low, that is a different animal, we are still here in 2008:



I also mentioned earlier the fund managers, who are going to see the market getting away from their fund's performance, and this is not the year to underperform the market. To perform equally bad with the market is one thing, to underperform it in a bad year is unforgivable...

Now if I have to give a maximum for this rally ending probably mid-January (or around the inaguruation) I would say 780+(780/2)= 1170 a 50% runup at most.
780ish being the 50% drop from all time high...

Here is the thread, good discussion about longer term directions:

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=146441&perpage=20&pagenumber=1
More...

inaguruation?
 
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