ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Am bullish for a test of 850 area (100 pt bounce).
Posted that right after close that "this bottom looks more real"
Just like all other bounces, they may turn into more important bottoms
Quote from Decel:
Bloody hands trying to catch a falling knifeand my long bias kept me from shorting early on
That being said, if we open with a gap up tomorrow (+15 - +25 range let's say), what are the odds that the gap will be closed on the same day? I'd think it's a no-brainer to short it, but now that we've fallen so much, I don't want to get wedgie'd in a monstruous bear rally.
Also, due to op ex, I don't see how they can just dump this much further. Maybe a mad drop for a madder rally?
The gap fill or not is not important.
We've dropped to another key level of support (50% from all time high, tested the 2002 swing low, etc.) thus a bounce is likely to happen. Based on the current way of price movement, 100-120 pt from the low is not out of the question.
The problem for the bull is then not this very friday, but next week when early results from retailers on "Black Friday" is reported.
One thing I am very curious is that for many who are affected by the current "crisis", how are they going to spend during this Christmas?
My guess would be more than most analysts expect
People tend to pamper themselves in bad mood ...
But where do they get the necessary $ to spend as their credit card, and other credit facilities are strapped?
From the stock market, of course. That also gives them the ability to reclaim tax payments from previous years.
My guess would be more than most analysts expect
People tend to pamper themselves in bad mood ...
But where do they get the necessary $ to spend as their credit card, and other credit facilities are strapped?
From the stock market, of course. That also gives them the ability to reclaim tax payments from previous years.
Getting close to Pek's target price level.
What you think would happen next Pek?
p.s. I thought we get a DB (2002 the 1st swing low) or DB - 10 pts (2002 2nd swing low and low of the year), that underestimated the power of fear ...
What you think would happen next Pek?
p.s. I thought we get a DB (2002 the 1st swing low) or DB - 10 pts (2002 2nd swing low and low of the year), that underestimated the power of fear ...
Trading will then move to overseas in forms in line with the gaming industry. i.e. CFD, financial betting in UK and Europe.
Or like plain old forex where no government could regulate. Maybe this time is different as many governments have their interests lined up.
Eventually, trading will just reappear in other form and getting even less taxable by the governments.
My target zone was between 760-780 (based on the dragon pattern) and we reached that yesterday morning. The pattern anticipates a bounce from there but it doesn't say how big. One could already argue that going from 774 to 821 by yesterday's 1 pm was that bounce, and that would mean that the pattern is already played out.
Now sometimes we do go back to the height of the W, which was around 920 or for the smaller dragon later 860 (if I remember correctly). Personally I hope the selling would stop but for trading purposes, the formation is most likely over.
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