ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Thank you.

Extreme tick index reading -

The NYSE Tick Index swing between positive and negative #.

Lately, the "trend buy mode" of the mkt can be identified easily when we see a reading of 900+ early in the day, and the "pull back" of ES does not result in a big negative reading.

Similar behaviour for "trend sell mode".

BUT, when you have Tick index > 900 on extremes and a mild negative reading (say, > -200) on pull backs, while the ES is going nowhere from the open ... there is something wrong with the mkt internals ...

i.e. everyone who want to jump in are jumping in, but such action fails to push the price much higher.

The reverse is also true for swing bottoms.

Do not take my word for that, check it out yourself. It is surprisingly accurate as a daily timeframe signal.
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Hello Lawrence,

Does the TICK reading also help you determine if there was real underlying buying support on an upmove? I have noticed you make some really insightful calls on whether trends are likely to continue or not. How might a TICK indicator help you understand the level of stock buying or selling support behind the move?

Many thanks,

Stone
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Just experimenting with some of the extra capital from this bear market. ie catching the knife with tight stops.:)
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Just catching up over the last few days and was surprised at your trading as well.
Your swing trades are impressive, but this is twice that I have seen you try what appears to be daytrading with close stops.
In the last few days it would appear that you have lost over 48k.
Shouldn’t you “experiment” with less than 20 contracts?
Not criticizing since I am guessing you made a ridiculous amount of money on the way down, just curious.
 
Quote from stoneface:

Hello Lawrence,

Does the TICK reading also help you determine if there was real underlying buying support on an upmove? I have noticed you make some really insightful calls on whether trends are likely to continue or not. How might a TICK indicator help you understand the level of stock buying or selling support behind the move?

Many thanks,

Stone
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For measuring underlying buying, I accumulate large size orders on the bid and on the ask across the underlying stocks in ES.

e.g. a spike low bounce back up without size buying on the underlyings is just a bounce, so continuation is more likely

TICK index is more like the heart beat monitor while the breadth information from the underlying buy/sell is the blood pressure measurement. :)
 
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