ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Frustrating day, I was short from around 67 looking for 855 but I bailed for 2 ticks profit, accepting an overall loss for the day. Those trades are heartbreaking, where you puke for a loss/BE only to see price move directly to your target seconds later...

And it looks like I'll get stopped out on SPY at the open tomorrow, should have killed it on weakness like I posted earlier...
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

No more inside day :eek:
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As I already stated, I'm aiming for 800 mark in the AH. However, if my crystal ball is correct (which hasn't been lately), I'm looking at 760-ish as the possible LOD for tomorrow or the next day. Although nothing is set in stone, any surprise to the upside looks very bleak at this time.
 
Quote from saliva:

As I already stated, I'm aiming for 800 mark in the AH. However, if my crystal ball is correct (which hasn't been lately), I'm looking at 760-ish as the possible LOD for tomorrow or the next day. Although nothing is set in stone, any surprise to the upside looks very bleak at this time.
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Was looking for 820-830 for a bounce, as stated many times here.

Unluckily I do not trade AH so no cigar for me :(

Nice to see someone riding the wave all its way. :p
 
Been checking the stats (using Yahoo! Finance, hope their data is correct) on the cash S&P, since today is the lowest close for the year.

YTD we're down 619.44 points or 42.19 %. 788.04 would be a 50 % retracement from last year's all-time intraday high of 1576.09 (was on October 11).

The intraday low after the Internet bubble and 9/11 was on October 9, 2002 at 768.63. If that doesn't hold we'll have to go back to April 28, 1997, with a low of 763.3.

Hope this is useful to someone.

Cheers from Kiev, Ukraine! :)
 
Quote from KyivTrader:

Been checking the stats (using Yahoo! Finance, hope their data is correct) on the cash S&P, since today is the lowest close for the year.

YTD we're down 619.44 points or 42.19 %. 788.04 would be a 50 % retracement from last year's all-time intraday high of 1576.09 (was on October 11).

The intraday low after the Internet bubble and 9/11 was on October 9, 2002 at 768.63. If that doesn't hold we'll have to go back to April 28, 1997, with a low of 763.3.

Hope this is useful to someone.

Cheers from Kiev, Ukraine! :)
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Firstly, Yahoo's data has never been that accurate, today certainly wasn't the lowest close on SPX this year. Maybe you were looking at a line chart?

Secondly, it was a close shave today to break current reaction lows & perhaps price will breakdown. Looking at the daily chart I see a bit of a bullish wedge with price nearing current reaction low, so I would expect a rate cut tomorrow to incite buyers to step up, we are way too close to an important support level. As far as the FED is concerned, so I believe, they are under pressure to come up with something cool ie a rate cut of 1/2 point perhaps. On the other hand I do not like the odds of banking on a BO right now considering the way histo is looking at the moment (early stages), of course if it is to adjust to look like I have drawn, then to me it would point to a breakout out of this wedge looking formation.


<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2147588>
 

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Quote from JSSPMK:

Firstly, Yahoo's data has never been that accurate, today certainly wasn't the lowest close on SPX this year. Maybe you were looking at a line chart?

Secondly, it was a close shave today to break current reaction lows & perhaps price will breakdown. Looking at the daily chart I see a bit of a bullish wedge with price nearing current reaction low, so I would expect a rate cut tomorrow to incite buyers to step up, we are way too close to an important support level. As far as the FED is concerned, so I believe, they are under pressure to come up with something cool ie a rate cut of 1/2 point perhaps. On the other hand I do not like the odds of banking on a BO right now considering the way histo is looking at the moment (early stages), of course if it is to adjust to look like I have drawn, then to me it would point to a breakout out of this wedge looking formation.


<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2147588>
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This is a bear market, plain and simple. Trying to find the bottom in such market is like shooting for the winning lottery ticket, sounds nice, but chances are you will fail.

I find it much easier to just short resistance areas and scale out as we make new LLs.

When resistance stops resisting and we finally make those walls support then perhaps we got something to look forward.

In the meantime this is a falling knife.

TV
 
Quote from The Voyager:



In the meantime this is a falling knife.
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Indeed so, but as long as you are an experienced countertrend trader you would know how to manage risk according to potential reward & if the ratio between the two is lucrative enough, then there is absolutely nothing wrong with catching a knife. Personally, I would only buy here when I can see a build up happening on shorter term charts.

If you look at the daily chart of oil & silver, then you would see a falling knife & stay away, I see an opportunity, because to me both of the charts are signalling that commercials are accumulating at lower prices foreseeing another leg up. A lot of savvy investors buy when majority don't want to buy, as to the majority it is falling knife & to the minority it is a lucrative opportunity worth the risk :)
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

Indeed so, but as long as you are an experienced countertrend trader you would know how to manage risk according to potential reward & if the ratio between the two is lucrative enough, then there is absolutely nothing wrong with catching a knife. Personally, I would only buy here when I can see a build up happening on shorter term charts.

If you look at the daily chart of oil & silver, then you would see a falling knife & stay away, I see an opportunity, because to me both of the charts are signalling that commercials are accumulating at lower prices foreseeing another leg up. A lot of savvy investors buy when majority don't want to buy :)
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I absolutely understand where you are coming from, you see the reward potential, and if a reversal presents itself intraday, that could be considered your low risk entry.

I tend to be more conservative. When the trend is down, I patiently wait for that reversal but at resistance, not at potential support.

Best trading to you.

TV
 
Quote from The Voyager:

I absolutely understand where you are coming from, you see the reward potential, and if a reversal presents itself intraday, that could be considered your low risk entry.

I tend to be more conservative. When the trend is down, I patiently wait for that reversal but at resistance, not at potential support.

Best trading to you.

TV
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Very well & same to you!
 
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