ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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6 must be a typo.
if you're just going to transfer funds in and out of the trading portfolio, then why does it matter where you draw the line initially? your trading portfolio is effectively your entire tlnw. correct? what's the significance of keeping the trading account at 20% tlnw?
also, isn't it only theoretically true that your tlnw won't blow up? losing 2% each trade continuously will never lead to 0. mathematically, this is true. but at some point your account will be so small that you can't risk 2% anymore, and you've effectively blown up.
if you're just going to transfer funds in and out of the trading portfolio, then why does it matter where you draw the line initially? your trading portfolio is effectively your entire tlnw. correct? what's the significance of keeping the trading account at 20% tlnw?
also, isn't it only theoretically true that your tlnw won't blow up? losing 2% each trade continuously will never lead to 0. mathematically, this is true. but at some point your account will be so small that you can't risk 2% anymore, and you've effectively blown up.
The 2nd part of the day can be a drop ...
But the magnitude could be a huge surprise
If 910 is taken out today, I do not have a target for the drop ...
Very very rare that I do not have one.
Edit: if I can tell, so can the others, thus 910 is not allowed to break
As the traders say, the tone is improving.........
Bonds Banging Better... 10-yr +26/32 yielding 3.639%
The market continues to cruise higher with the 10-yr yield pinging around either side of the sticky 3.645% level for the past hour. The market is regaining its flight to quality status even as it appears the machinations by global govts to shore up markets seems to be helping take some of the sting out of the still stressed credit markets. The fix on the 3-mo Libor showed a substantial tightening, at 3.54 while other measures also show improvement with the overnight rate at the mid-04 levels. Spreads continue to flatten, some harder than others, with the 2-10-yr yield spread slipping to 205.8, nearly 9 basis points flatter, while the 3-mo-10-yr is in 7.7bps from nearly 400bps the 15th.
BUT, gringos es en mucho trouble again
Argentina's MERVAL Index Plunges 17%, Most Since At Least 1988
Argentinian ADRs down sharply today following govt takeover of pension funds
Argentina's stock market is down sharply again today on further developments of the planned govt takeover of $29 bln of pension funds. Bloomberg reports that Argentina's Merval index tumbled 10% today, with concern the South American country is headed for its second default this decade... A number of the Argentinian ADRs trading sharply lower include: BMA (-30%), BFR (-24%), CRESY (-14%), EDN (-28%), GGAL (-30%), IRS (-12%), NTL (-23%), PZE (-19%), TEO (-35%), TS (-14%), TX (-10%).
Bonds Banging Better... 10-yr +26/32 yielding 3.639%
The market continues to cruise higher with the 10-yr yield pinging around either side of the sticky 3.645% level for the past hour. The market is regaining its flight to quality status even as it appears the machinations by global govts to shore up markets seems to be helping take some of the sting out of the still stressed credit markets. The fix on the 3-mo Libor showed a substantial tightening, at 3.54 while other measures also show improvement with the overnight rate at the mid-04 levels. Spreads continue to flatten, some harder than others, with the 2-10-yr yield spread slipping to 205.8, nearly 9 basis points flatter, while the 3-mo-10-yr is in 7.7bps from nearly 400bps the 15th.
BUT, gringos es en mucho trouble again
Argentina's MERVAL Index Plunges 17%, Most Since At Least 1988
Argentinian ADRs down sharply today following govt takeover of pension funds
Argentina's stock market is down sharply again today on further developments of the planned govt takeover of $29 bln of pension funds. Bloomberg reports that Argentina's Merval index tumbled 10% today, with concern the South American country is headed for its second default this decade... A number of the Argentinian ADRs trading sharply lower include: BMA (-30%), BFR (-24%), CRESY (-14%), EDN (-28%), GGAL (-30%), IRS (-12%), NTL (-23%), PZE (-19%), TEO (-35%), TS (-14%), TX (-10%).
17% down, eh? Ain't globalism grand?
Quote from Lawrence Chan:
If 910 is taken out today, I do not have a target for the drop ...
Very very rare that I do not have one.
Edit: if I can tell, so can the others, thus 910 is not allowed to break
if it does break that would be inline with current economic outlook. if it does not then we would assume profit taking. It does look like there will be some HARD selling near the close. I think funds still need to liquidate positions for redemptions etc.
also the situation over seas is dire. i can't see any reason to buy into the market right now other than intraday plays. even mr buffett is looking ahead long term and is not expecting any profits any time soon however he has the staying power to endure sharp declines and hold losing positions almost indefinately (not really but you know what i mean).
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